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Yes, cherry blossom peak bloom is predicted earlier than average this year

Peak bloom this year is forecasted to be between March 22 and March 25, according to the National Park Service. The average peak is April 4.

WASHINGTON — After our third-warmest winter and our third-warmest February, it is no big surprise that D.C.'s cherry blossoms are expected to bloom early this year. The National Park Service announced Wednesday that peak bloom is predicted between March 22 and 25. 

So what is the average peak bloom? April 4 is considered the average date for 70% of the blossoms to be in bloom.

This early bloom is the result of our unseasonably warm weather and not fluctuations in our weather this winter. We had only two arctic outbreaks: one before Christmas and another in early February. The D.C. region finished in first place for the warmest combined January and February on record, dating back to 1871. 


The National Park Service has been tracking peak bloom since 1990, which saw the earliest bloom on record on March 15. The latest peak bloom is April 18, 1958, before the National Park Service tracked the six stages.

This will be D.C.'s fifth year in a row with an early bloom. In 2018, the cherry blossoms peaked nearly right on average, on April 5. We are in stage two as of Wednesday. 

Last year, we entered stage two on March 7 and the blossoms peaked on March 21.

Let's remember that the prediction of peak bloom may, and often does, change and that the trees are beautiful before and after "peak bloom." The enemies of the blossoms, once opened up, are wind and cold temperatures below 30 degrees. Snow will not damage the open blossoms. Accumulating snowfall occurred days after peak bloom arrived in 1990 and the blossoms survived.

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