Year after year, Warren Buffett looks at his offer to pay $1 billion to anyone who fills out a perfect NCAA tournament bracket as nothing more than a matter of having the numbers in his favor.
Do you think you can pick all the winners in the NCAA Tournament? Eh probably not.
There are more than nine quintillion different bracket combinations.
Yes, that is a number. I had to look it up.
That's a nine, followed by 18 zeros. Imagine that!
If you filled out that many physical brackets, that's enough to build a trail from the Earth to the moon well over 1 million times.
Ain't nobody got time for that!
So, sorry your odds for that "perfect bracket" are not existent.
But here are five tips for those final touches needed for your bracket:
- Double-digit seeds may set you apart. But many people pick their winners based on having the higher seed, because let's face it those teams have the better chances of advancing. It's no-one's fault but your own if you pick a 13 seed to be in the championship game. Upsets happen, that's where the "madness" comes into play, just not late in the tournament when most of the points are at stake. There is the one exception when George Mason went to the Final Four ... Anyways, the smart route here is to predict no "madness" following the second weekend.
- I don't know what it is, but people love to pick teams based off colors. So if you're going to go down that path blue is the best choice. That's my favorite color. There are so many wonderful shades of blue, too. Arizona, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina are all experienced in the big dance; they all wear blue-- coincidence? I think not.
- Another aspect to take into consideration when finalizing your bracket is the conference. Which conference is a mega-powerhouse? Which conference has the most seeds in the tournament? History has proven that major conferences generally prevail in the end. There are 32 conferences in NCAA Division I men's basketball. Each one will have at least one representative at the Big Dance. That's where the uniformity stops. Over the past 40 seasons or so the following "power" conferences have succeeded in all of the championships: ACC (12) Big East (8), SEC (7), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (2) Big 12 (2). The most recent exception to this rule was with Connecticut (formerly Big East) in 2014 (American). But still, focus on the mega-conferences people.
- I'm big into flipping coins when trying to resolve something. That may not always be the right avenue for certain decisions, but when it comes to the 8-9 seeds in the Big Dance, it's perfect! The selection committee hasn't explicitly come out to say it, but they have made gestures that these teams are evenly matched-- so no need to go crazy doing research. They are one in the same. Allocate the time to finding the right 12 seed to pick against a 5 seed. Those are usually the most probable upsets!
- Last but not least...don't go with your alma-mater people! My exception to this rule is unless it's a Michigan or North Carolina school. I'm sorry my local people but UMBC is not beating the overall #1 seed UVA. Plain and simple. The takeaway: there's no room for sentimental favorites--don't fall for the narrative.
So finish those last minute touches to your bracket or brackets!
The 2018 NCAA Tournament is underway!
