WASHINGTON — Key Points:

*Tropical storm or subtropical storm will likely form Thursday night or Friday
*Storm will dump rain along Gulf Coast starting Friday
*Storm may come ashore along the Florida Panhandle
* Rain: 2-4 inches. Storm Surge: 2-5 feet
*What is left of the storm will track off the NC coast Sunday and may bring some rain and showers to the DMZ

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may become a tropical or subtropical storm within the next 48 hours, possibly Thursday night or Friday.  This storm will likely not become a hurricane , but will produce rain and gusty winds along the Gulf states from Louisiana to Florida, before heading toward the Carolinas later this weekend. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this disturbance that has become slightly better organized in the last few hours. It has an 90 percent chance for development within the next 48 hours.  While the disturbance will move into an environment that will become conducive for development , it will likely not become a hurricane. The next named storm will be Nestor.

An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate, if need be.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued along the Gulf from Louisiana to Florida.  Winds will peak at around 50 mph with this storm. Precipitation estimates are 2 to 4 inches of rain.  Storm surge will be between 2 and 5 feet.  

Most model guidance takes the storm into the Florida Panhandle late Friday night into early Saturday morning, near cities such as Destin and Panama City.   From there, the storm loses it's tropical features but continues to drop rain across Alabama and Georgia, before heading to toward the Carolinas later this weekend.  

D.C. Impacts

As a post tropical system, the storm will continue to move northeast and will be south of D.C. by Sunday morning.  This will give the DMZ a chance of rain and showers, especially south of D.C. into southern Maryland. 

 

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