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Could hurricane season start early for the fifth year in a row?

There have been named systems in the Atlantic basin before June 1 for the last four years.

WASHINGTON -- Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but for the past four years in a row, 2015-18, it's unofficially started early with named tropical systems ahead of June.

Could it happen this year again to make five in a row? 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of low pressure near the Bahamas. They're giving it a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days.

On average, the Atlantic basin doesn't "heat up" for tropical systems until later in the season during the late summer to early fall. There are two reasons for this -- cooler ocean waters and wind shear.

For development, tropical systems need warm waters over 80 degrees for more latent heat and energy. The ocean heat content is too low for development early in the season, on average. In addition, the atmosphere in the tropics is more dynamic with more wind shear, or changing of winds with height, an inhibitor for tropical systems.

So although the National Hurricane Center is investigating this broad area of low pressure, it will likely not develop yet, but there's still plenty of time left in the month of May for pre-season tropical systems if conditions become more favorable. 

Credit: WUSA
Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Named Storms 2015 to present -- Alberto made landfall in 2018 as a Subtropical Storm.

This year's list of Atlantic hurricane season names will start with Andrea, then continue down the list as the season wears on. 

Credit: WUSA

The National Hurricane Center will release it's hurricane season outlook May 23.

Another tropical weather powerhouse, Colorado State University, released their hurricane season outlook on April 4, predicting a slightly below-average hurricane season with 13 named storms, five of which becoming hurricanes and two of those five to become major hurricanes. Their hurricane season forecast is based on statistical models that include information on historical data, ocean temperatures, wind shear and the projection of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. 

RELATED: NOAA post-storm analysis finds Hurricane Michael was Category 5 at Florida landfall

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