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109

ACUS11 KWNS 220130

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 220129 

SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-220400-



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0829 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010



AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN GA...MUCH OF SC...EXTREME S-CENTRAL

NC.



CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 



VALID 220129Z - 220400Z



BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION

THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHILE MOVING NEWD FROM SAV RIVER REGION ACROSS

SC.  POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS MAY OCCUR WITH

STRONGEST SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS.  MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. 

ATTM...SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR WW. 



ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS AND WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS

REGION AHEAD OF FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW...70 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL

WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG.  HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE

THERMODYNAMIC.  NEARLY NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP BUOYANCY

WEAK -- MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 300 J/KG MOST AREAS -- WITH SMALL

CAPE DENSITY.  BUOYANT PROFILES WHOSE DEPTH CHANGES GREATLY WITH

JUST 1-2 DEG C OF THETAE CHANGE ALSO WILL LEAD TO WIDELY VARYING

EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND FOR PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW

PROFILES...LIMITING LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.  



SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING/PRIMARY FRONTAL SEGMENT AS OF 01Z 

BETWEEN ATL-AHN...SEWD TOWARD AYS AND WRN FRINGES JAX AREA...THEN

SWD ALONG FL PENINSULA.  LOW LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE WILL BE

CONCENTRATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS

DISCUSSION AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION

-- WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS -- HAS FORMED IN ZONE OF

MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE/THETAE...AND WAS EVIDENT AT 00Z NEAR A VDI-AHN

LINE...EXPANDING IN WIDTH WITH NWWD EXTENT.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THETAE PLUME WILL SHIFT NEWD NEARLY IN STEP WITH

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH NEAR-SFC AIR MASS

BECOMES MUCH MORE STABLE WITHIN SHORT DISTANCE NEWD FROM CURRENT

POSITION OF BAND...CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED...AND PERHAPS EVEN

INCREASE IN MOVING ZONE OF WAA ACCOMPANYING BROAD/40-50 KT LLJ. 

PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINFORCED BY LOW-LEVEL THETAE

ADVECTION...OFFSETTING STABILIZING EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING

JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY

NEAR SFC.  AS SUCH...DAMAGING GUST OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.



..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2010



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...



LAT...LON   31958202 32878227 33948291 34548310 35298151 35018017

            34097969 32987945 32927958 32777983 32627991 32587998

            32588011 32458032 32518047 32378042 32268055 32298070

            32208065 32098079 32068090 32028083 31848096 31568115

            31178131 31298166 31618184 31958202 










000


ACUS11 KWNS 220130


SWOMCD


SPC MCD 220129 


SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-220400-





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


0829 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010





AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN GA...MUCH OF SC...EXTREME S-CENTRAL


NC.





CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 





VALID 220129Z - 220400Z





BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION


THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHILE MOVING NEWD FROM SAV RIVER REGION ACROSS


SC.  POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS MAY OCCUR WITH


STRONGEST SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS.  MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. 


ATTM...SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR WW. 





ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS AND WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS


REGION AHEAD OF FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW...70 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL


WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG.  HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE


THERMODYNAMIC.  NEARLY NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP BUOYANCY


WEAK -- MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 300 J/KG MOST AREAS -- WITH SMALL


CAPE DENSITY.  BUOYANT PROFILES WHOSE DEPTH CHANGES GREATLY WITH


JUST 1-2 DEG C OF THETAE CHANGE ALSO WILL LEAD TO WIDELY VARYING


EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND FOR PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW


PROFILES...LIMITING LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.  





SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING/PRIMARY FRONTAL SEGMENT AS OF 01Z 


BETWEEN ATL-AHN...SEWD TOWARD AYS AND WRN FRINGES JAX AREA...THEN


SWD ALONG FL PENINSULA.  LOW LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE WILL BE


CONCENTRATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS


DISCUSSION AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION


-- WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS -- HAS FORMED IN ZONE OF


MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE/THETAE...AND WAS EVIDENT AT 00Z NEAR A VDI-AHN


LINE...EXPANDING IN WIDTH WITH NWWD EXTENT.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST


SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THETAE PLUME WILL SHIFT NEWD NEARLY IN STEP WITH


PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH NEAR-SFC AIR MASS


BECOMES MUCH MORE STABLE WITHIN SHORT DISTANCE NEWD FROM CURRENT


POSITION OF BAND...CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED...AND PERHAPS EVEN


INCREASE IN MOVING ZONE OF WAA ACCOMPANYING BROAD/40-50 KT LLJ. 


PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINFORCED BY LOW-LEVEL THETAE


ADVECTION...OFFSETTING STABILIZING EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING


JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY


NEAR SFC.  AS SUCH...DAMAGING GUST OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.





..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2010





...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...





ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...





LAT...LON   31958202 32878227 33948291 34548310 35298151 35018017


            34097969 32987945 32927958 32777983 32627991 32587998


            32588011 32458032 32518047 32378042 32268055 32298070


            32208065 32098079 32068090 32028083 31848096 31568115


            31178131 31298166 31618184 31958202 














181

ACUS11 KWNS 211916

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 211915 

FLZ000-212045-



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010



AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA



CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 



VALID 211915Z - 212045Z



A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH 20-21Z ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE

MONITORED.



A RELATIVE MAXIMA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED COINCIDENT

WITH RECENT CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FL

PENINSULA...SOUTH OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED/CONVECTIVE LINE

INDUCED RAIN-COOLED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED

CONVECTIVE LINE...SOME QUASI-DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN

NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SEBRING/AVON

PARK. WHILE A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700-800 MB NOTED PER A 16Z XMR

OBSERVED RAOB/MORE RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS MAY STILL BE CAPPING MUCH

OF THE WARM SECTOR...NEAR SURFACE CINH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE

GIVEN CLOUD BREAKS COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED STEADY NORTHWARD

DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND

PROFILES PER MLB/TBW DERIVED WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUPPORTS SOME

POSSIBILITY FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK OVER THE

NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED SENSE. THIS WOULD BE VIA

QUASI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF/STORM MERGERS WITH THE

CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR LINE-EMBEDDED TYPE CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLY A TORNADO...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY AS STORMS

INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST VICINITY SEA BREEZE.



..GUYER.. 03/21/2010



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...



LAT...LON   28078108 28208067 27918045 27178037 26218118 26818172

            28078108 








        
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