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374

ACUS02 KWNS 091719

SWODY2

SPC AC 091718



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1218 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009



VALID 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND

WESTERN GREAT LAKES...



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS...



...SYNOPSIS...

AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS...THE BRUNT OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN

PROVINCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WITH

AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND

GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD

ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE TRAILING/SLOWER

MOVING PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER

MO VALLEY INTO KS/SOUTHEAST CO.



...MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

ON THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY/VEERING LOW LEVEL

JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT MO VALLEY...IT SEEMS

PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED TSTMS AND POTENTIALLY ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL

BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND/OR

LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY

MORNING. MUCH OF THE SUBSEQUENT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON

FRIDAY LARGELY OWING TO THIS EARLY DAY TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT A

DIURNAL UPSWING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE

AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WHERE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN

EARNEST. THIS COULD OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY STORMS/ALONG REMNANT CONVECTIVE

OUTFLOW...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE

SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND

EXPECTATIONS FOR MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S F SURFACE

DEWPOINTS...MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND

STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED

SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND STORM CONSOLIDATION/POTENTIAL

UPSCALE MCS GROWTH AND/OR A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET

MAY YIELD AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY EARLY EVENING.



...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

OWING TO THE NORTHWARD-EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS

ALOFT...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY REMAIN

CAPPED ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT

RANGE. REGARDLESS...DEEP MIXING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL

UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING

PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY/SOUTHWEST SD/NEB PANHANDLE/EASTERN CO

SOUTHWARD TO PERHAPS NORTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX

PANHANDLES. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A LATE DAY MID LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE

PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL

SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS AND A

SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN

WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS FRIDAY

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION.



...FL PENINSULA...

SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER

THE FL PENINSULA INTO FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY COOL MID

LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -8C TO -10C AT 500 MB. CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO

LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY

TO THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL

PENINSULA...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY MAY EXIST

WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS

HAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



..GUYER.. 07/09/2009








        
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