763

ACUS02 KWNS 161648

SWODY2

SPC AC 161647



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1147 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010



VALID 171200Z - 181200Z



...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



...SYNOPSIS...



LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE RATHER HOSTILE FOR MEANINGFUL DEEP

CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD.  WITH LARGE SCALE

OFFSHORE FLOW NOTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MEAGER MOISTURE

INLAND...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHTNING IS QUITE LOW OVER MOST AREAS.



...CA/GREAT BASIN...



WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST

AFTER 18/00Z.  PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE...INTERIOR HEATING ACROSS

NRN CA INTO NV WILL GREATLY CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC

DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY PEAK HEATING WHERE

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER

TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUOYANCY

SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE HEATING/CONVERGENCE FOR SUSTAINED

UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME LIGHTNING.



...TX...



VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN TX

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY...GREATER THAN 9 C/KM...ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN

ASCENT REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL

BECOME UNINHIBITED BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 22-24C...HOWEVER

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING

WILL BE QUITE SPARSE AND SHORT-LIVED.



..DARROW.. 03/16/2010