WUSA9.com

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

9WEATHER NOW & The National Weather Service

Severe Watches &  Warnings: Updated every 15 minutes.

Latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center and College of Dupage



Doppler 9000
Click for Tomorrow's Severe Weather Oulook
Latest Warnings
Click for USA Severe Weather Watch Boxes
Latest Watches
Click for SPC Mesoscale Discussion
Latest Mesoscale Discussion

Day 2 Outlook




5304


ACUS02 KWNS 051723


SWODY2


SPC AC 051721





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008





VALID 061200Z - 071200Z





...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER


MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS...





...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH


PLAINS...





...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS...


AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DAMPEN AS A ZONAL


FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN STATES SUNDAY.


AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD REACHING MN...IA AND ERN


NEB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS


PARTS OF MN AND IA. BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD


RECOVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS FIRST INITIATING


ACROSS WI AND MN. STORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE


SWWD INTO IA AND NEB. SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS


PARTS OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.





CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY


AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL


SHEAR BELOW 850 MB WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS


SHOULD CREATE 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED


SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE


WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY FAVOR MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY


ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LINEAR FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED. A


PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN NEB INTO


WRN IA AND THIS WILL AID LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY WITH


ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...850 MB


FLOW AROUND 20 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE LATE


AFTERNOON MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND


DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY LINEAR MCS THAT CAN


ORGANIZE AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.





...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...


A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN U.S. WITH A SUBTLE


SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AT


THE SFC...AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST FROM WRN NEB


NWWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO SE WY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF


MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST


SOUNDINGS SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO


DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL


LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE


HAIL THREAT. WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS...HIGH-BASED STORMS


WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS


LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW


MARGINALLY SEVERE HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ERN CO AS


CONVECTION MATURES IN THE ERN CO PLAINS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE


VERY STEEP.





...GULF COAST STATES/ERN SEABOARD...


A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE


GULF COAST STATES AND ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS


THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND


OTHER CONVERGENCE ZONES. ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP


LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR PEAK HEATING SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR


ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS. THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS MAY ALSO


CONTAIN HAIL.





..BROYLES.. 07/05/2008







        
This page will automatically refresh every 15 minutes

 

Advertisement

Talkback Opinion Poll

What is your favorite part about the Fourth of July?
or View Results