Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
OUTLOOK: The Big Ten Conference has had eight teams reach the Final Four in
the last 12 years, the league now synonymous with excellence as it relates to
the world of major college basketball.
Last season, the Ohio State Buckeyes reached that lofty perch, only to fall to
eventual national runner-up Kansas. Despite the league's amazing run as one of
the nation's elite, a Big Ten team hasn't won the national title since
Michigan State turned the trick in 2000.
That could all change this season, as the Indiana Hoosiers appear to have what
it takes to be left standing when the dust settles on that first Monday in
April, laying claim to their sixth national crown, and their first since 1987.
Coach Tom Crean has an extremely talented squad, but to reach that point
Indiana is going to have to outlast the likes of Michigan, Ohio State,
Michigan State and Wisconsin.
Both the Wolverines and Buckeyes in particular are expected to give the
Hoosiers a run for their money, as each possesses the sort of talent-rich
roster most teams drool over. The Spartans and Badgers are probably just a
rung below, each boasting their share of gifted athletes.
Even the second half of the teams currently calling the conference home aren't
pushovers, but there is a fairly dramatic drop-off in terms of overall talent.
Still, the Big Ten has some of the nation's top coaches, all of whom are
capable of keeping their teams competitive in a league that thrives upon it as
it prepares its teams for the pomp and circumstance that is the NCAA
Tournament.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Indiana
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
1 Indiana, 2. Michigan, 3. Ohio State, 4. Michigan State, 5. Wisconsin. 6.
Minnesota, 7. Purdue, 8. Northwestern, 8. Iowa, 10. Illinois, 11. Penn State,
12. Nebraska
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
INDIANA: The Hoosiers open the 2012-13 season as the No. 1 team in the
country, their first such distinction since ending the 1993 campaign as the
top team in the land. Indiana has the good fortune of returning all five
starters and 11 total letterwinners from last year's team that advanced to the
Sweet 16 and finished with a 27-9 overall record. A dangerous team any way you
look at it, Indiana can run with the best in the country, but is coming off a
year in which it drained 43.1 percent of its 3-point shots as well. The team
is led by Crean, now entering his fifth year at the helm, and he has one of
the top players in country at his disposal in 6-11 sophomore Cody Zeller. The
Big Ten Freshman of the Year as selected by the league's coaches last season,
Zeller averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, but he isn't the only
talented player who will be wearing the crimson and cream this year as he will
be joined up front by senior Christian Watford (12.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and junior
Will Sheehy (8.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg). The IU backcourt is expected to consist of
seniors Jordan Hulls (11.7 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Victor Oladipo (10.8 ppg, 5.3
rpg), as well as the return of junior Maurice Cheek, who missed all of last
season with a ruptured Achilles. Add a highly-touted recruiting class to the
mix, which includes standout point guard Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and anything
but a Big Ten title and deep run in the NCAA Tournament will be a huge
disappointment.
MICHIGAN: The Wolverines welcome back three starters from last year's NCAA
Tournament team that won a share of the Big Ten title. Head Coach John Beilein
enters his sixth year with the program and returns a pair of All-Big Ten
performers in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Burke was named the league's
Freshman of the Year by the media last season after averaging 14.8 points and
4.6 assists per game, while Hardaway, Jr. turned in 14.6 ppg and as long as he
puts forth a consistent effort from one night to the next he should put
together a campaign worthy of additional accolades. The duo will need to be on
top of their game throughout the season, but particularly early on as
newcomers Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III develop their overall games.
Both are talented players already, but while Robinson has the blood lines (his
dad is former Purdue and NBA star Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson), the 6-10 McGary
comes in as one of the top frontcourt recruits in the country. Another
youngster who could make an immediate impact is 3-point sniper Spike Albrecht.
Scoring in close to the basket will be paramount to any success Michigan
achieves this year, but make no mistake, this team will run through Burke and
Hardaway, Jr.
OHIO STATE: With future NBA first-round pick Jared Sullinger leading the way,
the Buckeyes won a share of the Big Ten title and reached the Final Four last
season. Despite the skilled big man moving on to the professional ranks, Ohio
State still has enough talent to challenge in the ultra-competitive Big Ten,
and head coach Thad Matta has to be thrilled to have three starters back to
lead by example. Aaron Craft (8.8 ppg, 4.6 apg, 2.5 spg) and Deshaun Thomas
(15.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) both earned All-Big Ten honors a season ago, with the
former being named the league's Defensive Player of the Year. While Thomas
will hold court up front and Craft working his magic out on the perimeter,
help will need to come from a slew of solid if unspectacular players. The hope
is guys like Lenzelle Smith, Jr. (6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and Evan Ravenel (3.4 ppg,
2.2 rpg) will contribute more as their roles expand. There is only one
freshman on the roster this year, as 6-5 Italian import Amedeo Della Valle has
the outside shooting chops to keep opposing teams from keying too much on
OSU's "big two". Long-range shooting is something the Buckeyes are going to
have to work on as they hit just 33.4 percent of their 3-point attempts last
season.
MICHIGAN STATE: There are few coaches around that are able to replenish a
roster the way Tom Izzo can, the long-time mentor now entering his 18th year
at Michigan State and needing to do one of his better jobs in keeping the
Spartans near the top of the Big Ten heap. MSU lost a big-time performer in
Draymond Green (16.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.8 apg), and it will now be up to guys
like junior guard Keith Appling (11.4 ppg, 3.9 apg) and sophomore swingman
Branden Dawson (8.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg) to lead the charge. Izzo will rely heavily
on those guys, but also expected to elevate their respective games are second-
year guard Travis Trice, who is a dangerous 3-point shooter and could develop
into one of the leaders of this team, as well as junior center Adreian Payne
(7.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, team-high 39 blocks), who simply needs to establish his
presence down low and not allow the opposition to cheat on the outside in an
effort to keep the Spartans' shooters in check. Michigan State has always
prided itself on defense and rebounding, and the team enjoyed success in both
areas last year when it allowed just 59.3 ppg and claimed a plus-8.0 advantage
on the glass. Expect more of the same this time around, although when they
have the ball, the Spartans could run a little more which would make them that
much harder to defend.
WISCONSIN: While some wondered whether the Badgers had enough talent to
compete with the big boys in the Big Ten last year, they proved they had the
goods as they won 26 games and reached the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16. Head
coach Bo Ryan preaches sound play at both ends of the floor, and while the
team is expected to perform well defensively a year after leading the nation
with just 53.2 ppg allowed, there are questions about its ability to score the
basketball. Wisconsin averaged a mere 64 ppg in 2011-12, and the loss of
Jordan Taylor and his 14.8 ppg, means guys like seniors Ryan Evans (11.0 ppg,
6.8 rpg) and Jared Berggren (10.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) will need to step it up in a
big way. Junior Josh Gasser (7.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) nailed 45.2 percent of his 3-
point shots last year, and junior Ben Brust (7.3 ppg) is also another long-
range threat as he made more 3-pointers (58) than any returning player. The
Badgers will start the season without senior forward Mike Bruesewitz (5.6 ppg,
5.1 rpg) as he recovers from surgery to repair of large gash to his right leg.
One of UW's top recruits is 6-8 forward Sam Dekker, who scored more than 2,600
points in his high school career. The Badgers will be highly competitive
thanks to a suffocating defensive effort, but whether or not they can score
with more regularity remains to be seen.
MINNESOTA: Tubby Smith enters his sixth season in charge of the Minnesota
men's basketball team, and while he has had talented squads in the past, this
may be his most balanced one yet. The team returns its top five scorers,
including senior Trevor Mbakwe who averaged 14.0 points and 9.1 rebounds per
game last season before going down with a serious knee injury just a few weeks
in. Rodney Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg) is the only other Golden Gopher who
averaged double digits in the scoring column last season, and when Mbakwe was
lost for the duration, it was Williams who assumed the role of go-to guy.
Julian Welch (9.5 ppg, 2.9 apg) along with Austin (9.2 ppg) and Andre Hollins
(8.7 ppg) are also back, and all will need to increase production in every
aspect of the game for Minnesota to climb the Big Ten ladder a year after
losing twice as many conference games as it won (6-12). Smith landed a couple
of top-notch recruits in 6-4 guard Wally Ellenson and 6-8 forward Charles
Buggs, the former being a solid shooter and the latter bringing a wealth of
skill to the table, not the least of which is his superior athleticism. The
Gophers have talent, but staying healthy (see Mbakwe) will be the key to any
success the team achieves this season.
PURDUE: No team in the Big Ten lost more quality players following the end of
last season than did the Boilermakers as Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson and Ryne
Smith accounted for half of the team's scoring. Junior guard Terone Johnson
(9.2 ppg) will be counted on heavily by head coach Matt Painter to lead both
on the court and in the locker room, and expanded roles for senior D.J. Byrd
(8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and sophomore Anthony Johnson (5.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg) should
benefit the team as well. There are six freshmen listed on the 2012-13 roster,
and the most talented appear to be point guard Ronnie Johnson and center A.J.
Hammons. The 7-0 Hammons will need to condition his body to withstand the
rigors of playing major college basketball, but his skill set is certainly
suited for the game, while Ronnie Johnson has the ability to become a special
floor general for a Purdue squad that will need someone to direct the offense
and get the ball to its more capable scorers. Three-point shooting will be
huge for the Boilermakers this season, and Byrd is the top guy in that
department after hitting 65 treys at a 43-percent clip a year ago. Hitting the
glass will also be key for Purdue as it was in the negative in rebounding
margin in 2011-12.
NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats won 19 games last season, but finished two games
below .500 in conference play (8-10) and went the final five weeks without
stringing together consecutive wins. In all fairness, they didn't drop back-
to-back games during the same stretch, but that kind of lackluster effort has
been indicative of the team in its history, which still does not include an
invite to the NCAA Tournament. Head Coach Bill Carmody enters his 13th year at
the controls, and he is genuinely excited about the talent he has assembled
this season, despite the glaring absence of scoring machine John Shurna (20.0
ppg). Senior Drew Crawford (16.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg) takes over as Northwestern's
top performer, and he should get help from sophomore guard Dave Sobolewski
(8.3 ppg, 3.7 apg) as well as senior Reggie Hearn (7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg). Junior
JerShon Cobb (7.1 ppg) was expected to have an expanded role, but he has been
suspended for the entire season due to a violation of team policy. Former
Louisville Cardinal Jared Shropshire is expected to make his final year of
eligibility a productive one as he brings experience and athleticism to the
court for a team that will need someone to complement the effort Crawford is
expected to deliver.
IOWA: For the Hawkeyes to avoid another middling-type season (18-17, 8-10)
this year, tightening up the defensive reins will be the key after they
allowed a Big Ten-worst 72.5 ppg in 2011-12. The loss of leading scorer Matt
Gatens (15.2 ppg) doesn't help at the offensive end, but allows for guys like
junior Roy Devan Marble (11.5 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Aaron White (11.1 ppg, 5.7
rpg) to develop into even more productive players. Sophomore Josh Oglesby (6.4
ppg, 45 3-pointers) will serve as the team's primary long-range threat. Junior
forwards Melsahn Basabe (8.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Zach McCabe (7.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
will get their chance to shine, but it's Marble coach Fran McCaffery is
expecting big things from as he assumes the role previously held by Gatens.
Iowa fans are excited about the prospects a guy like 6-1 freshman Mike Gesell
brings to the table, and the same for 7-1 rookie Adam Woodbury, as both could
see significant playing time from the outset. Lacking a true superstar, the
Hawkeyes will be hard-pressed to finish in the top half of the conference
standing this year. However, if they play well as a team and catch some breaks
health-wise, they could show improvement.
ILLINOIS: Despite finishing on the positive side of the ledger last season
(17-15), coach Bruce Weber was shown the door and his replacement, former Ohio
University head man John Groce, has been entrusted with restoring the pride
the Fighting Illini showed between 2000-06 when they never lost double-digit
games in a season. Groce has some talent to work with as he embarks on this
next chapter in his career, notably leading scorer Brandon Paul (14.7 ppg, 4.7
rpg, 2.9 apg) who will need to improve his shooting touch if he is to become
truly one of the elite players in the conference. D.J. Richardson (11.6 ppg)
is one of the team's elder statesmen, and big things are expected from 6-8
forward Sam McLaurin who while at Coastal Carolina last season shot better
than 61 percent from the field in averaging 10.0 points and 7.5 rebounds per
game. McLaurin adds instant credibility to a team that figured to struggle on
the glass this year after losing Meyers Leonard (13.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg) following
last season. The key to any success the Illini achieve this year could hinge
on the play of sophomore point guard Tracy Abrams (4.3 ppg), without whom the
team is likely to be a rudderless ship despite having a new captain at the
controls.
PENN STATE: There isn't a team in the Big Ten that relies more on one player
than Penn State does on senior guard Tim Frazier. The 6-1 standout averaged
18.8 points, 6.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game in 2011-12, and he is on
pace to become the school's all-time assists leader while also expected to
shoulder the majority of the scoring burden once again. Joining Frazier in the
Nittany Lion backcourt is junior Jermaine Marshall (10.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg), and he
is coming off a year in which he led the team with 43 3-pointers. Overall
however, the team shot just 31.1 percent from long range in netting a mere
61.8 ppg. Expected to produce right away after transferring in from Southern
Miss is sophomore guard D.J. Newbill, while the frontcourt should benefit from
the seasoning guys like Jon Graham (3.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Ross Travis (4.4
ppg, 4.2 rpg) got as rookies last season. Frazier is the team's catalyst in
more ways than one, but if coach Patrick Chambers can get one or two others to
play above their means then perhaps the Lions can improve upon the 12 wins
they logged in his first season at the helm.
NEBRASKA: The Cornhuskers lost nine of their last 10 games last season, and
the school's administration decided a change was in order so Doc Sadler was
let go and former Colorado State head coach Tim Miles was given the job. Miles
isn't likely to have a whole lot of success in his first year at the helm as
the team lost its only double-digit scorer in Bo Spencer (15.4 ppg), and five
of its top six scorers overall. Senior guard Dylan Talley (8.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg)
is the lone holdover from that group, but he started just one of the 25 games
he appeared in last season. Senior forward Brandon Ubel (6.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg)
will need to elevate his game considerably to give Nebraska a frontcourt
presence, and guys like 6-7 sophomore David Rivers and 6-11 senior Andre
Almeida could help there as well. Make no mistake, scoring is the sticking
point with this team, as it averaged a league-low 60.9 ppg last season. One
guy who could shine brighter as the season wears on is diminutive freshman
point guard Benny Parker. Even with a new voice calling the shots, it won't be
easy for the Huskers to win more than the four conference games they did in
their first year in the Big Ten.
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