Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
OUTLOOK: It was a banner 2011-12 season for the Colonial Athletic Association,
as the mid-major conference finished the year with five of its 12 members
posting 20+ wins, including a league high 29 from both Drexel and Virginia
Commonwealth. With the Rams jumping ship to the Atlantic 10 this year, that
leaves the Dragons as the favorite to take home the league title again in
2012-13.
Drexel isn't going to just run away with the conference crown though, as
George Mason and Delaware could present a stiff challenge, as both have enough
left over talent to guide a squad through a long season.
Old Dominion has been a postseason fixture for almost a decade and should
continue that trend as one of the top teams in the league, especially if some
of the newcomers on the roster deliver immediate results. The Monarchs will be
moving to Conference-USA next season.
Northeastern, James Madison and Hofstra should have better seasons than a year
ago, as all three finished under .500. The biggest drop off will come at
Georgia State, where the Panthers have been gutted by graduation and to make
matters worse, will not participate in the CAA postseason as the team is in
transition to the Sun Belt for next year.
The bottom of the conference will belong to William & Mary, Towson and UNC-
Wilmington. The Tribe could improve on their six wins from a year ago, while
the Tigers will assuredly improve on their lone win. That leaves the Seahawks,
who will also not participate in the postseason. UNCW has just one proven
commodity and that alone will more than likely relegate the team to the CAA
cellar in 2012-13.
The conference is undergoing some changes and it will be reflected in a
conference tournament that only seven of the current 11 programs will take
part in.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Drexel
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Drexel, 2. Delaware, 3. George Mason, 4. Old
Dominion, 5. Northeastern, 6. James Madison, 7. Hofstra, 8. Georgia State, 9.
Towson, 10. William & Mary, 11. UNC-Wilmington
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
DREXEL: Bruiser Flint has turned Drexel into one of the most well-rounded
mid-major program in the nation. Four starters return from a team that went
29-7 overall and ran through the conference schedule, capturing the regular-
season crown with a 16-2 mark. Adding fuel to this year's fire for Drexel is
the fact that the NCAA Tournament committee decided to bypass the team,
relegating the Dragons to the NIT. Leading the way this year is junior point
guard Frantz Massenat, who is the CAA Preseason Player of the Year after
averaging 13.7 points and 4.8 assists per game as a sophomore. Damien Lee
(12.0 ppg) is perfect complement, with his scoring ability off the wing. Chris
Fouch (10.8 ppg) and Derrick Thomas (8.1 ppg) add plenty of punch in the
backcourt. The team lacks big-time scorers in the frontcourt, but their job is
to play stifling defense, which the team did all season long last year,
ranking first in the CAA and fifth nationally in scoring defense (56.1 ppg).
Leading the way in that regard will be forwards Dartaye Ruffin (5.6 ppg, 4.9
rpg) and Daryl McCoy (4.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg).
DELAWARE: The Blue Hens may represent the toughest test for Drexel to
overcome this year, as Delaware returns four starters from a team that
finished 18-14 overall and a solid 12-6 in league play. The backcourt is
lethal, with a trio that consists of potent scorer Devon Saddler (second in
the CAA at 18.8 ppg), Jarvis Threatt (10.7 ppg) and Kyle Anderson (8.9 ppg).
The frontcourt has depth as well, led by senior forward Jamelle Hagins (12.4
ppg, 11.1 rpg, 95 blocks) who can do it all and ranked first in the CAA and
fifth nationally in rebounding. He will be joined by fellow senior forward
Josh Brinkley (8.7 ppg). Saint Joseph's transfer Carl Baptiste (6-8 junior)
will help fortify up front as well. Both Hagins and Saddler were All-CAA
Second-Team members last year and will certainly vie for First-Team honors in
2012-13.
GEORGE MASON: The Patriots went 24-9 a year ago, including 14-4 in-conference.
Paul Hewitt's second year with the team could provide an even greater reward.
George Mason must find an adequate replacement for CAA Player of the Year Ryan
Pearson, but may have an All-CAA player on the roster if junior guard Sherrod
Wright (9.6 ppg off the bench last year) elevates his game the way Hewitt
believes he can. The two returning starters on the roster are point guard
Byron Allen (7.5 ppg, 3.7 apg) and fellow guard Vertrail Vaughns (8.8 ppg).
The frontcourt needs an identity and role players last year like forwards Erik
Coples (3.3 ppg, 51 blocks) and Jonathan Arledge (4.3 ppg) will need to step
up. Freshman guard Patrick Holloway has a chance to get extended minutes right
away.
OLD DOMINION: The Monarchs are departing for Conference USA and after going
22-14 last year, with a 13-5 conference record, Blaine Taylor's squad would
like nothing better than to go out on top. The team did all that despite
ranking 250th nationally in shooting the basketball. So, where exactly will
the Monarchs find offense this year? That's a good question. Kent Bazemore
(15.4 ppg) and Chris Cooper (10.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg) are no longer around. Taylor
hopes the answer can be found in a combination of players, including senior
forward Nick Wright (8.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and guards Donte Hill (7.6 ppg) and
Dimitri Batten (7.9 ppg). There is also great anticipation for what NC State
transfer DeShawn Painter will do for the frontcourt. The 6-9 center will bring
a toughness in the paint that Old Dominion has grown accustomed to over the
years and could develop into one of the CAA's top big men.
NORTHEASTERN: The Huskies have been consistently average under Bill Coen's
reign, finishing with a .500 record in the CAA in five of the last six
seasons, including last year's 9-9 mark. Still, the team won just five games
outside of the league, leaving it three games under par on the year (14-17)
overall. How much those numbers change in 2012-13 depends a lot on the play of
a backcourt consisting of senior guards Jonathan Lee (14.5 ppg) and Joel Smith
(12.9 ppg), as well as the huge potential of 6-8 sophomore guard Quincy Ford
(11.5 ppg), who showed the ability to do a little bit of everything as a
freshman last year. Ford will really have to elevate his game early on, as Lee
suffered a foot injury during drills recently and will not be ready to start
the season. Sophomore forward Reggie Spencer (6.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) makes it four
returning starters, but Northeastern must get role players and newcomers alike
to make contributions to push towards a winning campaign.
JAMES MADISON: Matt Brady is on the hot seat at James Madison after a 2011-12
season in which the team finished a mere 12-20 overall, with just a 5-13 CAA
record, good for just a tie for eighth place in the standings. A lot of that
had to do with key injuries throughout the roster, but Brady may still need a
huge turnaround this season to keep his job. A veteran core of players
returning could be just what the doctor ordered. The team returns three
starters in senior guards A.J. Davis (15.9 ppg) and Devon Moore (8.8 ppg, 4.2
apg) and senior forward Andrey Semenov (10.2 ppg). Senior forward Rayshawn
Goins (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) was a key contributor off the bench two years ago,
but missed last season with a shoulder injury. His healthy return should
fortify things up front. A solid recruiting class is headlined by youngsters
Andre Nation (6-5 guard) and Ron Curry (6-4 guard).
HOFSTRA: After winning 21 games in his first season at Hofstra, Mo Cassara's
squad failed to continue the progress in 2011-12, finishing 10-22 overall,
including a miserable 3-15 effort in the CAA. If the third time is a charm,
Casarra is going to have to get the most out of the newcomers brought in. Gone
is the CAA's top scorer Mike Moore (19.9 ppg), as well as backcourt mate
Nathaniel Lester (14.6 ppg). So where exactly will Hofstra find that kind of
production at the offensive end? Well, it isn't likely to come from any
returning player. Despite three starters returning, the top point producer
among them is senior forward David Imes (7.0 ppg), whose season was cut short
due to injury. Anticipated transfer Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (6-7 forward), who
won a national title at UConn in 2011, is likely to make a big impact. Another
transfer, sophomore guard Taran Buie had a cup of coffee with Penn State in
2010-11, netting just under six points per game in 11 outings. Freshmen Jimmy
Hall (6-7 forward) and Dallas Anglin (6-1 guard) should get plenty of minutes
as well.
GEORGIA STATE: Ron Hunter's debut with the Panthers was certainly a
successful one, as Georgia State finished 22-12 overall. The wins were harder
to come by in conference play though, with the Panthers finishing in sixth
place with an 11-7 mark. Expecting similar results in 2012-13 would truly be
remarkable, considering the team loses four starters. The lone holdout is
point guard Devonta White (12.9 ppg), but there isn't much of a supporting
cast around him. Virginia Tech transfer Manny Atkins will finally get on the
floor for Georgia State, and he could certainly help. Other newcomers of note
include Markus Crider (6-5 forward) and Ron Hunter Jr. (6-5 guard), the
coach's son.
TOWSON: Things couldn't have gone much worse for Pat Skerry in his first
season with the Tigers, as Towson won just one game (1-31), finishing last in
the CAA at 1-17. Towson hasn't posted a winning record in almost 20 years and
that streak is probably not in jeopardy of being halted in 2012-13. Only two
starters make their way back to the team this season and that's not
necessarily a bad thing. Senior forward Marcus Damas (12.5 ppg) is the best
option in terms of returning talent. To Skerry's credit, he has brought in
some players to hopefully move this team in the right direction. That talent
includes a couple of bigs in the form of former Georgetown Hoya Jerrelle
Benimon (6-8, 245) and former Providence Friar Bilal Dixon (6-9, 245). There
is also 6-3 freshman guard Jerome Hairston, who can play either guard position
and 6-8 freshman forward Barrington Alston, who is a play-above-the-rim
athlete. The pressure should be off for the newcomers as the Tigers will not
take part in the postseason due to low APR scores.
WILLIAM & MARY: The Tribe were a disappointing 6-26 last season, struggling
to remain competitive in the CAA with a 4-14 mark, good for a 10th-place
finish. In order for Tony Shaver to move this team in the right direction, he
will need to get the most out of his deep backcourt. The team returns three of
last year's five starters with the lost of Quinn McDowell (12.5 ppg) being the
most costly. Still, there are high hopes for 6-4 sophomore Marcus Thornton
(11.1 ppg), who is the team's top returning scorer. Junior Brandon Britt (9.0
ppg) joins Thornton in the backcourt. Fellow junior Tim Rusthoven (10.3 ppg,
6.6 rpg) gives the team a frontcourt option, but must stay healthy to maximize
his potential. Freshman Terry Tarpley (6-5, 190) and Sean Sheldon (6-9, 215)
are versatile youngsters that can help a team in a number of ways. Still,
there are too many unknowns on the roster to think the Tribe will improve
significantly in 2012-13.
UNC-WILMINGTON: UNCW will also not participate in the postseason due to a low
APR, but Buzz Peterson has bigger worries heading into 2012-13 after posting
just a 10-21 mark a year ago, including a 5-13 effort against the rest of the
league. The team returns just two starters from last year, but has a CAA
Player of the Year candidate in the form of 6-8 senior Keith Rendelman, who
averaged a double-double last season (15.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg). Former Rutgers
guard Tyree Graham is now at UNCW and will be immediately available as a
graduate student. His time in Piscataway were marred by injuries (torn ACL and
ruptured Achilles' heel), but hopefully he can bring an offensive presence to
a backcourt in desperate need of one. Peterson is expecting production from a
couple of redshirt freshmen as well in 6-8 forward Luke Hager and 6-1 guard
Craig Ponder.
The Sports Network