With just under three weeks to go until Election Day, SurveyUSA finds 9 of the 11 incumbent governors who are facing tough re-election battles this fall have taken hits to their approval ratings in the past month, according to the 50 separate but concurrent statewide public opinion polls SurveyUSA conducts for its media clients around the country each month.
In Minnesota, Republican Tim Pawlenty is at 45%, down 11 points from last month. This is the first time Pawlenty has had a negative Net Approval since August of 2005, and at Minus 7, is his worst Net Approval since polling began in May of 2005. Pawlenty trails by 9 points in the latest Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll. The contest is closer in other polling.
In Illinois, Democrat Rod Blagojevich, October's lowest-rated Democrat, is at 38%, down from 43% in September. Blagojevich, at Minus 21 this month, has never had a positive Net Approval in SurveyUSA's 18 months of tracking. Blagojevich leads by 6 points in SurveyUSA's most recent poll. Other polls show Blagojevich with a larger lead.
In Texas, Republican Governor Rick Perry is at 40, down 4 from last month. Perry's Minus 14 Net Approval ties with his May 2006 number as his second-worst showing, and marks his third straight month with a negative Net Approval number. Perry leads in every poll, but his is a complicated 4-way fight.
In Michigan, Democrat Jennifer Granholm is at 39%, down 3 points from September. In 18 months, she has never been higher than 45%, which she hit just once, in March 2006. Granholm leads by 5 points in SurveyUSA's latest poll.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat Ed Rendell is at 57%, down from 60% last month. Rendell leads by 17 points in several recent polls.
In Wisconsin, Democrat Jim Doyle is at 46%, down 3 points from last month. Over the past year and a half, Doyle has been as low as 41% and as high as 52%. Doyle leads by 5 points in recent polling.
In Maryland, Republican Bob Ehrlich is at 48%, down 2 points from last month. Over the past 18 months, Ehrlich's approval rating has been as high as 55% and as low as 39%. Ehrlich leads by 6 points in SurveyUSA's most recent poll.
In Maine, Democrat John Baldacci is at 42%, down 2 points since last month. Baldacci has never risen above 45%. Baldacci leads by 5 points in SurveyUSA's most recent poll.
In California, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is at 43%, down 1 point from September. Schwarzenegger leads by 14 points in SurveyUSA's most recent poll.
In Oregon, Democrat Ted Kulongoski is at 39%, up 3 points since September. Kulongoski leads in some polls, trails in others.
In Rhode Island, Republican Don Carcieri is at 56%, up 3 points from September. Carcieri leads, but it is unclear by how much. Recent Rhode Island polls disagree.
The top-ranked governors this month are:
1) John Hoeven(R) North Dakota - Plus 68
2) Jon Huntsman(R) Utah - Plus 53
3) John Lynch(D) New Hampshire - Plus 52
4) Joe Manchin(D) West Virginia - Plus 48
5) Dave Freudenthal(D) Wyoming - Plus 47
The bottom-ranked governors this month are:
46) Rod Blagojevich(D) Illinois - Minus 21
47) Matt Blunt(R) Missouri - Minus 24
48) Ernie Fletcher(R) Kentucky - Minus 36
49) Bob Taft(R) Ohio - Minus 60
50) Frank Murkowski(R) Alaska - Minus 63
31 Governors have a positive Net Job Approval today; 18 have a negative Net Job Approval. In September, 34 had positive ratings; 16 governors had negative ratings.
The average for the 28 Republican Governors is Plus 7 (down 4 from September).
The average for the 22 Democratic Governors is Plus 15 (down 2 from September).
Net Job Approval is calculated by subtracting the percentage of adults in a given state who disapprove of their Governor's performance from the percentage who approve.
September interviews were conducted 10/1206 to 10/15/06. 600 adults age 18+ in each of the 50 states were asked, "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor [name] is doing?"
Respondents were asked only about the Governor of the state in which they reside.
Complete October rankings for all 50 Governors, sorted by Net Job Approval, can be found here.
Complete October rankings for all 50 Governors, sorted alphabetically by state name, can be found here.
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