Friday Morning 2/29 We only have a Feb 29th once every four years, so let's try and make it special weatherwise. The only fun I can conger up is a little clipper induced precip Overnight and into Early Saturday Morning. The center of the the storm will miss us to the North, but we should get overrunning rain & snow to develop late this Afternoon or this Evening. All of the thickness parameters are pointing to snow, but the surface temps might be too warm at first. I think we'll start with a mix of light rain & snow this Evening then it will turn into light snow & flurries off & on Overnight. The QPF is not impressive...as I write this...8AM...the NAM comes up dry for DCA and the GFS has about .11" liquid through Sat AM. So, I think a dusting is possible in a few areas...most likely near the PA line. Snow showers might linger into Sat AM as the upper trof goes negative and a nice vorticity maximum swings through. It should be windy & dry by the Afternoon. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday. High temps might climb into the 60s by Monday!  ¶ 7:45 AM 0 Comments

  Thursday Morning 2/28 It's going to be a quiet and cold Thursday, so let's focus our attention on the next storm. It will be a clipper that will go through upstate New York Friday and Saturday. Most of the energy will miss us, but I think we have a chance to get some overrunning precip ahead of the warm/occluded front that will approach from the SW on Friday Evening. The surface winds will turn SE, so we should be able to get some moisture flowing in off the water. At this point, all of the thickness parameters would point to snow. However, if the precip comes in during the Afternoon on Friday, the surface temps might be a little too warm. So, in that case, it would be a mix of light rain/sleet and snow. If it holds off until after sunset, I believe it will be mostly snow....and not much....probably an inch or less. The rest of the weekend looks OK. We are still watching another storm for Tuesday next week....most likely rain.  ¶ 8:40 AM 0 Comments

  Wednesday Morning 2/27 We have an interesting set up Today in the atmosphere....the upper level trof axis is still West of here and there has been a little down slope induced sunshine this morning. Why is that interesting? Well, it's very similar to the set up in the summer to produce afternoon t-storms. The atmosphere is very unstable. The sunshine will add fuel to the fire as a few strong vorticity maximums roll through later Today. We should see some convective snow showers pop up that will capable of coating the ground...maybe up to an inch in a few spots. If these convective snow showers develop this afternoon, they would also be capable of pulling down some strong winds...blizzard conditions could be reached for a few moments in these squalls. The core of the cold is over us on Thursday, but it will stay dry. Our next chance for snow will be Friday Night.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:10 AM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Morning 2/26 The storm we talked about yesterday is on track. We'll see periods of light rain Today....the temps will stay on the cool side, but not cold enough for snow during the day. The center of the storm will pass through Northern MD or Southern PA this Evening. As it passes, it will shift the winds to the North and start to drag in some colder air. The rain might mix in briefly with snow before it ends. On Wednesday, the upper level trof axis will move through with a few nice vorticity maximums embedded in the flow. There could be enough lift to create a few snow showers as it passes. It will be a windy day as well...gusts over 30 MPH. In addition, the high temps will struggle to get out of the 30s.

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8PM! Stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:35 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 2/25 After a quiet day Today, another storm will approach from the West on Tuesday. I think we'll start to get some overrunning precip late Tonight. There will be a warm front moving towards us from the South. We'll have to keep an eye on the temps, but at this point, I think we'll stay above freezing so there should be no problems with ice. The first batch should just be rain going into the rush on Tuesday Morning. I'm not sure if the warm front will make it all the way through however....so the temps should stay below the MOS numbers on Tuesday...probably in the 40s. The surface low will intensify and track across Northern Maryland. We won't be quite cold enough for snow during the day on Tuesday, but things could change in the Evening. As the low passes, it will deepen and start to pull in some colder air....we might see a change to snow before everything comes to an end on Tuesday Night. Then it gets breezy & cold on Wednesday.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM...you can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:39 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Evening Update 2/24 Well...it looks like the little storm we talked about below is going strong. I think it will hold together and produce some light rain or snow overnight and into very early Monday Morning. There could be a dusting of accumulation in some areas, especially across Northern VA and far Southern MD. The Northern Suburbs should only see some flurries. This could still cause a few slick spots for the start of the rush on Monday.  ¶ 2:55 PM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 2/24 High pressure will be in control of the weather through Monday. However, there is one interesting little storm in the Southern branch of the jet that we'll have to keep an eye on for late this afternoon and tonight. The High should squash it to the South into North Carolina, but the NAM and GFS are actually producing measurable snow here in DC overnight. For now, I'll just say we'll have a chance for flurries....I will update later today if it looks like it will be more of a snow event. Our next chance for rain or snow will be on Tuesday. This storm I think will take a more West to East track than what is being shown on the computer models right now. So, instead of cutting up the spine of the Appalachians like most of the storms this winter, I think this one will move across Southern PA or Northern MD. If that track holds, the temps will be cold enough for a mix of rain and snow. We'll talk more about this one on Monday.

Join us for Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 7:31 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Morning 2/23 We'll be watching a few pieces of energy in the upper levels pass through Today. These will be strong enough to trigger scattered rain & snow showers. There could even be a little freezing rain near PA line very early in the day. As the surface low pulls away off the coast, the temps will cool in the upper levels and that should point towards light rain or snow showers instead of freezing rain. Freezing rain is caused by having a warm layer in the atmosphere, between 3000 & 5000 feet, and cold air at the surface. The last of these little short waves will go though early Tonight with a slight chance for some snow flurries. High pressure will be in control to close the weekend on Sunday. There will be another storm going through North Carolina Sunday Afternoon, but all of the precip with that one will miss us to the South.  ¶ 5:53 AM 0 Comments

  Friday Afternoon 2/22 Just flew back in town from Chicago....BWI was packed! There were a lot of people sitting around waiting for flights to catch up. The weather situation for late this afternoon and this evening looks like it will get worse. There is an area of low pressure developing off the NC coast...this will turn the surface winds here to the North or NE. Why is that important? It will keep the cold air wedge in place...I don't think the temps will move much for the rest of the day....they might even fall a few degrees. In addition, the freezing rain should continue through this evening as a nice slug of moisture moves in from the West. After sunset, any of the untreated road surfaces will refreeze and ice accumulations will continue on trees and power lines. I think the steady precip will be finished by early tonight, but there could be some freezing drizzle overnight. A few snow showers are possible on Saturday as some upper level energy passes during the day. Sunday looks quiet.

Be careful on the roads this evening.....  ¶ 12:40 PM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 2/18 A cold front will sweep off the coast Today and gradually take the warm air with it....there could be a few showers in the process. We'll also have a series of weaker fronts go through over the next few days as winter comes back. The first will come in on Tuesday Afternoon...I don't think there will be much precip...maybe a few flurries...but the arctic air will be begin to drop South. The next front will actually have a nice little clipper storm develop on it Wednesday Afternoon. The ECMWF has the low passing through Northern VA, which would be a good spot for us to get some light snow. If that track holds, we could actually get an accumulating snowfall...a rare thing for us this winter! The end of the week looks unsettled as well.


Weather Talk will be off for the next few days...my next post will be Friday Morning.  ¶ 8:45 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 2/17 The storm we talked about yesterday is on track...a warm front will approach from the South this Evening. The center of the storm will follow the script that the whole winter has been writing for us...moving West into the Great Lakes. High pressure will slide off the coast and we'll see our chances for rain increasing this Afternoon and especially Tonight. There's even a slight chance for a few t-storms as a spring-like air mass rushes in Overnight. High temps will push to near 60 on Monday! A strong cold front will go through during the late Morning or early Afternoon hours and that will bring and end to the precipitation. It will also usher in a brief shot of arctic air for Tuesday...highs will be in the 30s. The end of the week looks active as well, but this time it will be cold enough for rain or snow all the way through the weekend. We'll talk more about that tomorrow.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:53 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Morning 2/16 A cold front will be moving off the coast Today....our flow will be coming out of the NW to start the weekend. It will be a little on the chilly side, but the weather should be quiet. Things will change on Sunday. Another storm will be cutting to our West into the Great Lakes...this will add to the record breaking winter snow totals out there. For us, it will bring a chance for rain. High pressure will be anchored to our East on Sunday...that will turn the surface flow to the SSE, and that should be enough to erode the cold air in time before the precip moves in during the day. We'll have to keep an eye on the timing, but right now I think it will start as a pure rain in the Afternoon. If it moves in quicker, we'll have to add the chance for some sleet. A warm front will go through Sunday Night and the temps will jump into the 50s by Monday Morning. A quick shot of arctic air will fallow this storm on Tuesday, with highs in the 30s and a chance for some flurries.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 5:25 AM 0 Comments

  Friday Morning 2/15 The cold front we talked about yesterday is on track...it will come through here sometime this Evening. There could be a few showers as it goes by, but nothing heavy. It will usher in a quick shot of cold air for the start of the President's Day weekend. On Sunday, a big area of high pressure will slide off the coast and turn our surface winds to the South. At the same time, yet another storm will be cutting to our West into the Great Lakes...adding to the record winter snowfall totals out there. The warm air looks like it will surge in BEFORE the precip arrives for us on Sunday...that means everything will be liquid, but we'll keep an eye on the timing. A strong cold front will go through on Monday with another shot of arctic air behind it for Tuesday next week.

My positive thoughts and energy are going out to my friends in the weather department, and everyone on campus, at Northern Illinois University. I graduated from there in 1987...it's a wonderful school that has a great relationship to the community. There is no way to make sense out of these types of things...the best we can do is hope that balance and peace return, as soon as possible, in the lives of those affected.  ¶ 8:23 AM 0 Comments

  Thursday Morning 2/14 The weather should be nice and quiet Today...a little breezy & cold...but quiet. High pressure will slide off the coast over the next 24 hrs and our next weather-maker will move into the Great Lakes. That clipper storm will go well North of us during the day on Friday, but it will send a cold front our way by late in the Afternoon. The surface winds will turn to the SW ahead of the front...that means the temps will warm into the low 50s in most areas. There could be a few rain showers as the front goes by, but no frozen stuff. However, this front will bring in another quick shot of arctic air for Saturday...high temps should stay in the 30s for the start of the weekend. Yet another storm will be approaching on Sunday....we'll talk more about that tomorrow.

Happy Valentine's Day!  ¶ 8:27 AM 0 Comments

  Wednesday Morning 2/13 Wow! What an ice event this turned out to be...the cold wedge is going to be hard to break Today in the areas near the PA line in the Mountains. Elsewhere, it should get above 32 eventually. An area of low pressure will ride up the I95 corridor Today, and the flow around the top of the storm should pull in some slightly warmer air into the Metro Areas. As I write this...8 AM...temps were in the upper 50s across the Eastern Shore and still in the 20s around Hagerstown! Some of that warmer air should be pulled West. Rain is likely most of the day as the storm passes. Overnight, most of the models take a strong vorticity maximum around the base of the upper trof behind the surface low late Tonight. This might pull some of the precip back and allow the cold air to catch up again...this time, it will be cold through the entire column though...that means there could be a period of snow before everything ends after Midnight. Minor accumulations are possible. The weather looks OK for Valentine's Day!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:30 AM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Evening Update 2/12 I don't think the temps are going to get above freezing Tonight in most areas....light freezing rain and sleet will continue through the overnight period. Minor ice accumulations are likely...be careful on the roads! Warmer air will slowly work in from the SE, so areas near the water and across Southern Maryland and Northern VA will probably make it above 32....elsewhere, the icing will continue.  ¶ 7:17 PM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Morning 2/12 Difficult forecasting set up for Today...I think the warm air is going to have a hard time moving in at the surface. The problem is that the storm to our West is digging...that means the flow aloft is getting stronger from the South. The warm air will move in above, but the surface temps will stay below freezing for most of the day Today. What it boils down to is this: The further we go into the afternoon, the more likely that any precipitation that falls will be in the form of sleet or freezing rain as opposed to light snow. Some ice accumulations are possible until the surface warm front can go through...and I don't think that will happen until Tonight. By late Tonight, everything should be a pure rain with the temps above 32. A strong area of low pressure will drive up the I-95 corridor on Wednesday, giving us a good chance for rain. Some of the models are trying to change the rain back to snow before it ends on Wednesday Night...not too sure about that...we'll talk more about it tomorrow.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8 PM! Stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:07 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 2/11 The big wind is gone, but left in it's wake is a very cold start to the work week. We'll have plenty of sunshine Today, but the temps will have a hard time getting to 30 This Afternoon. Now, we have to focus our attention on Tuesday. A warm front will be approaching from the South during the day...overrunning precip should break out sometime late Tuesday Morning. The question is: What kind of precip? The arctic air will be hard to move...in addition, the air should be fairly dry so any precip that falls, at the start, will cause some evaporative cooling. I think it will initially start as a mix of snow and sleet...there could even be a small accumulation. After that, the warm air will work in aloft then gradually make it down to the surface. In the process, there could even be a period of freezing rain in the Northern Suburbs. By Tuesday Night, it should be warm enough for a pure rain everywhere. An area of low pressure will ride up the I-95 corridor on Wednesday with a good chance for rain.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8PM! Stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:24 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Evening Update 2/10 Well it took longer than I thought, but the arctic hounds have finally been released! The winds will continue to gust over 40 MPH early Tonight. The temps will fall quickly, and the wind chills will be close to zero by early Monday Morning.

For those of you trying to post comments...the system won't let them in...if you have questions or comments, send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Thanks!  ¶ 5:30 PM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 2/10 The arctic wolf will be howling by This Evening! Big changes will occur through the day...temps will fall from the 40s This Morning to the 20s by This Evening. In addition, the winds will be gusting over 40 MPH as the arctic air comes in. The wind chills will be near zero at times Early Tonight. There could also be some rain and snow showers...accumulating snows are likely in the Mountains...there could even be a dusting in a few spots around the Metro Area. With the temps falling below freezing, that could cause a little slipping & sliding. The actual temps will drop into the single digits in the Northern Suburbs and into the teens around the City by early Monday Morning. High pressure will calm the winds to start the work week. If you have questions or comments...send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM...just stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:03 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Morning 2/9 The arctic express is on the way! A big storm will roll into the Great Lakes Today...it will send a series of fronts though here over the weekend. The first will come in This Evening...there could be a few rain or snow showers Today and Tonight. The upper level temps are cold enough to support snow showers, but the boundary layer will be fairly warm. So, if we do see some precip Today, it will be mixed. The last front will come though on Sunday Morning...this will release the arctic hounds! I think there could be a brief period of heavy snow showers as the front comes in...maybe a dusting in some spots. The winds will kick up and gust over 30 MPH and the temps will be falling all day. We might start in the 30s, but it should fall into the 20s by Evening with wind chills between 0 and 10 degrees!

Note: For those of you trying to post comments....the system won't work! You can send me an e-mail at: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 5:20 AM 2 Comments

  Friday Morning 2/7 A weak vorticity maximum will pass to our South Today...there could be some sprinkles or flurries This Morning. The weekend looks interesting forecast-wise....the arctic wolf will be howling by Sunday! A clipper storm will move into the Great Lakes during the day on Saturday...it will send a series of cold fronts through here over the weekend. The first one will go through by Saturday Evening. We could see some rain or snow showers...most of the thickness parameters point to sleet or snow, but the boundary layer will be fairly warm. However, I think the MOS numbers for Saturday are too high...we'll have a SE wind and there should be plenty of cloud cover...so, I think it will stay in the 40s. The arctic cold front goes by on Sunday Morning, and that will release the hounds! There could be some snow showers right along the front. The winds will shift to the North during the day and start gusting over 20 MPH...the 850 MB temps drop to between -15 and -20 degrees Celsius on most of the models by Sunday Afternoon. That means the surface temps should be falling for most of the day. The wind chill could be near zero by the Evening hours!  ¶ 7:56 AM 0 Comments

  Thursday Morning 2/7 The weather should be nice & quiet Today...there will be a few clouds around and it will be a lot cooler than yesterday's record breaking temps, but still not bad for this time of the year. A weak vorticity maximum will pass through here early Friday Morning...there could be a few light rain or snow showers....but the best chance for precip will come in over the weekend. An area of low pressure will develop in the Great Lakes...it will gather some serious arctic air behind it. Most of the energy will stay North of us, but we will see some rain & snow showers on Saturday as the arctic front approaches. After it goes by, a quick shot of big time cold spills in for Sunday...High temps will not climb above 32 in most areas. The winds will be gusty and there could be some light snow showers or flurries as well....winter comes back over the weekend!  ¶ 8:06 AM 0 Comments

  Wed Afternoon Update 2PM The threat for severe weather has diminished around the Metro Area for This Evening. There is just too much cloud cover and the light showers we've had Today have stabilized the atmosphere a little. The dynamics still look impressive as the front comes through, so there could be a period of heavy rain and gusty winds in the storms Overnight. There could be a few gusts over 50 MPH in the squall line right along the front itself....that will pass through by 2 AM. Breezy & colder conditions expected for Thursday.  ¶ 2:10 PM 0 Comments

  Wednesday Morning 2/6 The main concern Today is the possibility of severe weather This Afternoon and Evening. It's going to be very nice in the temp dept...we should crack the 70 degree mark, and that would set records at all of the airports. However, it's that heat the atmosphere will use to create some big storms later Today. A strong storm system is rolling through the Ohio Valley...it produced several tornados and there were hundreds of damage reports on Tuesday. We won't have quite the same atmospheric set up here, but severe weather is still possible. There is a low level jet going, a few thousand feet up, close to 100 MPH...any strong shower or t-storm will be capable of transferring some of that momentum to the surface. In addition, the winds are veering with height...that means there is some "twist" in the atmosphere...tornado development is a possibility...especially if we get some storms running out ahead of the main line. It's those "front runners" that have the best chance of producing tornadoes...not the ones in the line of storms ahead of the front. Make sure you check the weather conditions somehow later Today...just to be safe.  ¶ 8:23 AM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Morning 2/5 A little touch of Spring is on tap before Winter comes back by the weekend. A warm front should work though the area from South to North Today...this will give us a chance for a few light showers again. Once the front goes by, the surface flow will turn to the SW and the temps will jump. I would not be surprised to see the temps going up Overnight...it will really feel like we have changed seasons on Wednesday. Highs will be well into the 60s in most areas with a few spots reaching 70! An area of low pressure will pass to our West on Wednesday Evening...this will drag a cold front through Overnight...there could be some fairly strong t-storms producing wind gusts over 50 MPH. Some of the models develop a secondary surface low on this front as the upper trof goes negative...this would keep the precip going longer. Everything should clear on Thursday. A series of clipper like storms will pass over the weekend...giving us a chance for snow showers and dropping the highs back into the 30s! Isn't weather fun? :)

Join us for Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8 PM! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 8:18 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 2/4 Warm front on schedule to come through here Overnight...the winds will be out of the East and SE Today bringing in a marine air mass and a chance for showers. The front should be through by Tuesday Morning...the winds then turn to the SW and the temps will jump...highs are expected to be in the Mid to Upper 60s Tuesday & Wednesday! The center of this storm will cut into the Great Lakes Tuesday Night....this will push a strong cold front through here late Wednesday. There should be enough instability for some t-storms as it goes by....I'm also seeing a negative tilt on the upper level trof...that means the front will slow down and there could even be another area of surface low pressure developing Late Wednesday across Virginia. That will enhance the rainfall and possibly give the cold air a chance to catch up to the moisture Wednesday Night...I think there is an outside shot that it could end as a little snow! We'll keep an eye on that.....You can listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM! Stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 10:36 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 2/3 The weather should stay quiet to close the weekend. There will be a few clouds around Today as some warmer air starts to work in aloft. A fairly strong storm will be approaching from Mid West early next week. A surface warm front will develop and come through here on Monday Night....that means the winds will shift to the East during the day on Monday. This will increase the clouds and give us a chance for a few showers. As the big storm digs to our West on Tuesday, warm air will rush in...highs are expected to be in the 60s! The center of this storm will go up into the Great Lakes Wednesday, but it will drag a cold front through here by the middle of the week and drop the temps back into the 40s by Thursday. The next chance for any frozen precip will be towards the end of the week.

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 7:28 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Morning 2/2 Happy Groundhog's Day! Looks like Punxsutawney Phil is going to see his shadow Today...six more weeks of winter. That's good news for the snow geese out there! So far this winter, it's been fairly disappointing in the snowfall dept.
The big storm that produced around 2 inches of rain for us on Friday is now pulling away to the Northeast and the weather should be quiet for the rest of the weekend. High pressure will be in control over the next 48 hours. On Sunday, that High will slide off the coast and a warm front will approach from the West. A few clouds might move in by late in the day, but it should stay dry. The front will go through on Monday with a chance for showers, but it will push the temps to near 60 by Tuesday!  ¶ 5:27 AM 0 Comments

  Friday Morning 2/1 It looks like most of the Metro Area will stay above freezing for the rest of the day. The exception will be in the Mountains...it will take until Noon for all of the cold air to scour out of the valleys. There will be a significant ice accumulation before it gets above 32. There could be some periods of heavy rain and gusty winds for everyone this afternoon and early evening. The low level jet is howling at 100 MPH and some of that momentum could be transferred to the surface in the rain shafts. It will be hard to create enough instability for strong t-storms, but if they do somehow get going, there's a lot of "spin" in the atmosphere. The fact that the winds are changing direction and speed with height means that there would be the possibility of some weak tornadoes...if the storms can get going. I think there is only a small chance this would happen...the cold air is hard to move in this type of situation. Quiet weather is expected over the weekend.  ¶ 8:39 AM 0 Comments