Thursday Morning 1/31 Quiet weather expected Today...but things will change late Tonight. Another storm system will come out of the Gulf on Friday and pass to our West. At the same time, a big area of High Pressure will be moving off the New England coast. The High will be close enough Tonight to keep the sky generally clear early...this will allow the temps to drop below freezing in most areas. The clouds will then roll in and hold things steady. The precipitation will be approaching from the South after Midnight...this will be a good set up for freezing rain and sleet. The air will be dry Tonight, so evaporative cooling will take the temps down even further initially. Warm air will then ride over the top of this cold surface air mass and produce a Friday Morning ice event in some areas. Here's a breakdown of what I expect:

We'll use the I-95 corridor as the dividing line again....North & West of I-95 it will start as a period of snow/sleet or freezing rain very early Friday Morning. The snow and sleet will mix out quickly and leave a pure freezing rain for a few hours...a small ice accumulation will be likely. The temps should get above freezing around the Metro Area by Mid Morning and everything will melt. This will just be a rain event after that point.

West of I-81 in the mountains, the cold air will hold much longer. This could be a significant ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley area. There could be over a quarter inch of ice on the trees and power lines.

I'll try and update later Today after I see the new model runs.  ¶ 8:40 AM 0 Comments

  Wednesday Morning 1/30 The winds will be the big story Today....gusts will exceed 40 MPH through this afternoon. The temps should be slowly falling for most of the day as well. The mountains really saved us from a dramatic temperature drop behind this front....down sloping will counteract the strong cold air advection. Some places in the Mid West experienced a 30 degree drop in one hour when the front came through!
Our next weather maker will be an area of low pressure coming out of the Gulf on Friday. It should be another "inside runner", so no snow for us again. However, we'll have to watch for the possibility of some freezing rain early Friday Morning. This storm will throw a lot of rain towards us and I think the temps will have a chance to drop below 32 overnight on Thursday. It will be a race between the rain and the warm air...if the rain comes in too early, we'll have a bad icing situation....more on that tomorrow.

Check area wind gusts here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=MDZ009&local_place=Olney&zoneid=EST&offset=18000  ¶ 8:34 AM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Morning 1/29 As we head through the day Today, the flow from the SW will pick up. That means the temps will continue to rise...probably into the overnight period. A very strong cold front is still scheduled to come through by early Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center has the Western Maryland Mountains in the risk area for severe weather this afternoon! The air behind this front is arctic...highs will be near zero Today in the Upper Mid West. We should make it into the 40s and 50s by Tonight....when the two air masses collide, there's going to be some action! I think we have a chance for a few t-storms as this thing comes through. The temps on Wednesday will either hold steady or fall slowly through the day. The mountains usually block the initial surge of arctic air here in the Metro Area....it has to spill over the ridges slowly. So, we won't see a 20 degree drop in the temps when it goes by, but the temps should be falling. The winds could be gusting close to 40 MPH as well on Wednesday.

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8PM ! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 10:10 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 1/28 Quiet weather expected Today and Tonight. High pressure will slide off the coast by early Tuesday allowing our surface winds to shift to the Southwest. Warm air will flow in ahead of the next cold front. A storm system will cut into the Great Lakes and it will then drag a cold front through here...the question is: when? I think the models have finally caught on to the slower solution I've been talking about over the weekend...this means a nice push of warm air. It won't stick around very long, but we should make it into the low 50s on Tuesday. The front looks like it will come through sometime Wednesday Morning. Showers are likely from late in the day Tuesday until the front goes by....and it's going to be a strong one! There will be a very quick shot of cold air on Wednesday...the temps will likely be falling after the high temp for the day is reached in the morning. High pressure builds in again, after that, for Thursday.

You can listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM! Stream the audio off the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 9:59 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 1/27 The weather should be fairly quiet the next few days. Another vorticity maximum will pass by this morning...I think most of the snow showers will stay in the mountains, but there is a slight chance there could be a few flurries near the Big Cities. It should turn Mostly Sunny around the Metro Area by this afternoon. A strong area of low pressure will stall off of the New England coast Tonight...at the same time, an upper level ridge will be trying to build. These two features will compete a little, but we should end up getting warmer early this week. Highs will be in the low 50s by Tuesday. A storm system will cut into the Great Lakes in the middle of the week and bring us a chance for showers late Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Join us every Tuesday Night at 8 PM for Weather Talk Radio....you can stream the audio live from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 7:29 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Morning 1/26 Warm air will be moving in aloft Today...it's still going to be chilly at the surface though. The result of the warm air going over the top of the cold air will be an increase in the clouds and a chance for some snow flurries Today. Overnight, a strong piece of energy will be dropping in from the Great Lakes. It looks almost like a clipper system. There will be a little better chance for snow showers as this goes though. It will also help to create a deep surface low offshore. Just like the last one, it will be too far to the East for us to get into the heavier precipitation. It will turn into a good snowstorm for the New England coast. Temps will warm up for us early next week.  ¶ 5:55 AM 0 Comments

  Friday Morning 1/25 All is quiet Today...it's going to be cold though. On Saturday, there will be yet another short wave dropping down in the flow from the NW. Just like the last few that have gone through here, there will be a surface low developing too far off shore for us to get into the heavy snow. However, there could be some light snow or flurries Saturday Night as the upper level feature goes by...there could be a little more if we can get a clipper type surface low to develop in the Great Lakes...then we'll get some overrunning precip ahead of some slightly warmer air that will be pulled in ahead of the storm. Either way, the storm will develop off shore after that, and get cut off from the flow...probably giving another good snow to the New England coast.
For all of you hardcore winter weather fans...the NAO is forecast to go slightly negative by most of the ensembles by the end of next week. That would make a little better set up for coastal storm generation...keep the faith!  ¶ 8:20 AM 0 Comments

  Thursday Morning 1/24 High pressure will slide off the coast this afternoon as a sharp upper level trof digs across the Mid West. A strong vorticity maximum will dive through the base of this trof as it moves through here Overnight. My rule of thumb for precipitation in these types of events is: If the center of the vort max moves South of DC, then we have a chance...if it goes North, we stay dry. This one will move across Northern VA, so I think we'll have a chance for some light snow or snow showers. Most of the models actually develop a surface low This Evening as well, but too far off shore for us to get into the heavier snow. The upper level trof stays "positive"...we need it to tilt back...or go "negative"...for us to have a chance at a good snowstorm. As it stands right now, I think there is still a chance at some minor accumulations. Quiet and cold conditions expected on Friday.  ¶ 6:53 AM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Morning 1/22 The Clipper storm is right on track....the center will pass well North of here, so most of the snow will be across PA and NY. However, I still think there is a chance that we could see some light snow or sleet this afternoon and this evening. The thing we really have to watch is the possibility of some light freezing rain. The air is dry, so when the precip starts, the temps will fall a little...probably below freezing in some spots. At the same time, warm air will be moving in aloft. So, the light snow and sleet could change to liquid and fall into the freezing air mass near the surface. This could cause some minor icing for a while. I don't think this will be a big deal though since there won't be a lot of precipitation falling, in what ever form. The untreated roads could be slick though...especially after sunset. Our next chance for some snow will be on Thursday...more on that later.

You can listen to Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8 PM! Stream the audio on the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 10:10 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Morning 1/21 The weather will be quiet Today...and it looks like we'll see another cold one Tonight. There could be a few clouds moving in late that will prevent the temps from tanking completely, but we'll still drop into the teens in most areas. On Tuesday, we'll be watching a Clipper storm that will pass to our North. Most of the energy will miss us, but the models are still producing some modest precip ahead of the cold front in the afternoon. It will be a cold start in the morning and the air will be fairly dry to start, so any precip that falls should be frozen to start...probably a mix of sleet and snow. As the warmer air moves in aloft, it will probably change to rain in the Southern Suburbs, but stay mixed from the City on North. I can't see this producing a lot of snow for us, but there could be a coating on the ground by early Tuesday Night in some areas. It just does not look like a good set up for a big precipitation event. However, the roads could be a little slippery after the sun goes down in the evening. We'll see another chance for some snow showers on Thursday.

Listen to Weather Talk Radio live every Tuesday Night at 8 PM...you can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 10:02 AM 0 Comments

  Sunday Morning 1/20 The arctic air is here! This will be the coldest stretch of weather so far this winter. The high temps Today will be in the 20s, but that's a little deceiving. The winds will be gusting over 20 MPH and that will create wind chills in the single digits for most of the day. Tonight, the winds will die down...that combined with the dry air and a mostly clear sky will make for some good radiational cooling....the actual temps will drop into the single digits away from the City and into the low teens Downtown. These are not record setting numbers, but cold enough! Quiet conditions are expected on Monday, but we'll see another chance for some rain or snow on Tuesday from a Clipper storm that will pass to our North. We'll talk more about that tomorrow.  ¶ 8:19 AM 1 Comments

  Saturday Evening 1/19 Big time cold is on the way...we're not going to break any records, but it will be the coldest stretch of weather so far this winter for sure. A coastal low will be moving off the Carolina Coast Tonight...that combined with the arctic cold front approaching from the NW, will give us a chance for some light snow. The GFS and the NAM both produce measurable precip Tonight, so I would not be surprised if some of you end up with a little coating of snow. The best chance will be across Northern VA and far Southern MD. After the storm passes, the cold rushes in...lows will drop to near 20 by Sunday Morning and the temps will have a hard time getting out of the Mid 20s in the Afternoon. The winds will be gusting over 20 or 30 MPH, so the wind chills will be in the single digits and teens....the actual temps will get that cold Sunday Night as the winds die down and a good radiational cooling situation sets up....stay warm!  ¶ 5:11 PM 0 Comments

  Friday Morning Post 1/18 After a quiet day Today, it looks like a "close call" on Saturday. An arctic cold front will be moving South out of the Great Lakes on Saturday...at the same time, and area of low pressure will be coming out of the Gulf again. Most of the computer models keep this storm too far South to give us any big amounts of snow...at this point, it looks like the best chance for an accumulation would be across Northern Virginia, Southern MD and the Lower Eastern Shore. We should get some light snow around the Metro Area, but the chances decrease towards the PA line. If we want a big snow storm, the sharp wave in the Northern Branch of the Jet and the wave in the Southern Branch need to "phase"....I don't see any of the models doing that right now. The Southern Branch low is moving too fast....but stay tuned!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:37 AM 0 Comments

  Thursday Evening Post 1/17 Well...this was a good snow! Here's a link to area snow totals: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/products/?prod=PNS There was a very impressive burst right before it changed over to sleet and rain in most areas....watch out for icy spots going into Friday Morning as everything refreezes. The weather should be quiet on Friday. There is now a split on the modeling for the next storm on Saturday...some have a direct hit and some have a total miss. We'll talk more about this later.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:08 PM 0 Comments

  Thursday Morning Post 1/17 It's an interesting situation here Today...we'll be right on the fence again with the temps. The GFS is showing a colder solution with a higher QPF than the NAM. This basically looks like an overrunning precip event to me...we should see some snow or a mix of snow and sleet at the onset then it should change over to a mix of rain/sleet and snow. There might be a period of freezing rain Tonight near the PA line that could produce some minor icing. In the DC Metro Area, I'm thinking around 1" - 2" of snow before it changes over to pure rain or a mix of rain and sleet. There could be 2" - 4" of snow in some of the Northern and Western Suburbs before the change over takes place. It will end early Friday morning. The next system is looking interesting as well on Saturday. Many of the models are now forecasting a coastal low out ahead of the massive arctic airmass that will move in on Sunday....more on that later.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:15 PM 0 Comments

  Tuesday Afternoon Post 1/15 Our little vorticity maximum is right on track and will swing through this afternoon. There could be a dusting of snow in a few places...the snow showers and flurries will dissipate this evening. The sky will clear overnight and the air is dry...that should add up to a cold start on Wednesday morning. We are still expecting a storm to come out of the Gulf on Thursday. The temps might not have a chance to recover during the day Thursday before the clouds move in, so the precip might start as a mix of rain/snow or sleet. Warm air will move in aloft after that and it should change to plain old rain on Thursday night. Just like the last storm, it might change briefly back to snow before it ends early Friday morning. An arctic cold front could bring another round of snow showers on Saturday.

Join us for Weather Talk Radio live Tonight at 8PM ! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.  ¶ 11:37 AM 0 Comments

  Monday Evening Post 1/14 The weather should stay fairly quiet for the next few days. There will be a strong piece of energy...vorticity maximum...that will be swinging through here in the afternoon on Tuesday. It might have enough juice to produce a few snow showers or flurries around the Metro Area...there should be no accumulation. The exception will be West of the Blue Ridge....up slope snows will continue in the mountains and there could be an additional 2" to 4" of accumulation by evening. The next storm will come out of the Gulf on Thursday. I think we'll be right on the fence again with the temps...I believe it will start as rain in the afternoon then maybe mix with some snow overnight. There is an old forecasting axiom that says: "The trend is your friend." The trend has been "no cold air" with almost all of the storms this winter...no matter the track. I do not see any reason to sway from that line of thinking just yet.

Weather Talk Radio will be live again on Tuesday Night at 8 PM ! You can stream the audio from the link to Internet Partnership Radio on the right.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 6:52 PM 0 Comments

  Sunday Evening Post 1/13 It's good to be back in action! It looks like the whole pattern is going to flip back to winter over the next few weeks, but first things first...the storm for Tonight. It's an interesting set up...we have an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes and a surface low in the SE that will ride up the Mid Atlantic Coast Tonight. If there were some good cold air in place, I would say this is a nice set up for a snow storm, but it's not quite there. The upper trof will tilt negative Overnight and that will allow the coastal low to deepen as it moves North. In this process, it will be able to pull in some slightly colder air as it passes. We should start out with rain showers overnight then it could mix in with some snow before it ends. All of the atmospheric thickness parameters are right on the fence, but if the temps can get into the low 30s, there could be some minor snow accumulations in a few spots after Midnight. It will turn into a bigger snow event for the Northeast on Monday Morning.
This will be the first in a series of storms that will eventually beat down the Southeast Ridge and will set up a more winter like regime for us by the end of the week.....more on that over the next few days.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 12:53 PM 0 Comments

  Weather Talk Off I will be out of the office until January 13th....I will continue daily weather discussions at that time. If you have questions or comments, send me an e-mail at: weathertalk@wusa9.com ....I will answer them when I return.

You can listen to Weather Talk Radio every Tuesday Night at 8 PM on Internet Partnership Radio....the link is on the right.

Best Wishes in 2008!  ¶ 8:36 AM 0 Comments