Damn the Cold Air Damming....

The ice storm from hell.....a bad forecast....whatever you call it, many parts of the area got an icy surprise last Tuesday afternoon and even where the ice was expected, there was more than anticipated; all thanks to a phenomenon called "Cold Air Damming".

Because of the region's geography, we get cold air masses that can stubbornly hang out over our area even as a storm system passes to our west. The Appalachian mountains block the low level air from the southwest as it moves from the Ohiio Valley toward the Northeast. If we have a northerly/norteasterly wind, the cold air can be almost impossible to dislodge. When the cold air is "dammed" up against the east side of the mountains, that's when we can get our worst icing.

This damming event was almost classic but it was also under forecast. The winds were almost calm. Monday night was very cold and then the colud cover came in early. This really inhibited the expected warming. So, when the rain began in the early afternoon, temperatures that were expected to be several degrees above freezing, were several degrees below. Massive traffic incidents and a horrific commute were the results.

The models really performed poorly, but my falling for those computer predictions and not seeing the event better is where I underperformed. I know that these things happen in this profession, but I don't like it. I've been thinking about what went wrong with the forecast and I will try to learn from this so that I can do a better job next time and not get fooled, like the computer models were. Given the way this winter has been going, I imagine I'll be tested again on another ice event or two.