New Years Eve Post 12/31 Get ready for big changes for the start of the New Year! An arctic cold front is scheduled to go through here in the morning on New Years Day. The clouds will increase Tonight ahead of this system, but it should stay dry as we turn the corner into 2008. This front will kick up a few rain and snow showers as it goes by, and the winds will be gusting over 30 MPH. The high temps for the day will be in the morning...they'll be falling into the 30s by the Afternoon. A big time lake effect snow event will take place West of the Blue Ridge Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Some of those snow showers will make it over the ridge tops into the Metro Area as well. The high temps on Wed & Thur will only be in the Low 30s and wind chills will be in the Teens! It will warm up quickly be the end of the week.

Happy New Year!

Weather Talk Radio will be live on New Years Day at 8PM...stream the audio on Internet Partnership Radio...the link is on the right.  ¶ 5:26 PM 0 Comments

  Sunday Night Post 12/30 An area of low pressure will pass off the DelMarVa Coast late Tonight....rain is likely through very Early Monday Morning. Both the GFS and the NAM drop temps in the upper levels Late Tonight enough for the rain to mix with sleet or snow...the only place that will have a chance for an accumulation will be in the far NW suburbs near the PA state line. The temps might drop below 32 in those areas, so there could be a few slick spots on the roads. The weather will be dry and chilly for New Years Eve. An arctic cold front will go through here on New Years Day....there will be a chance for rain or snow showers as it passes. There will be a quick shot of very cold air through the middle of the week...highs will be in the upper 20s and low 30s with overnight lows in the teens and single digits!

Weather Talk Radio will be live on Tuesday Night at 8PM...you can stream the audio from the link on the right for Internet Partnership Radio.  ¶ 5:09 PM 0 Comments

  Saturday Night Post 12/29 Another storm will move in from the South on Sunday along the stalled front across North Carolina and Southern Virginia. This should spread some rain showers in here by Sunday Afternoon. Initially, the atmosphere will only support liquid precipitation. That will change on Sunday Night as the center of the storm moves off the DelMarVa Coast. It will pull in some slightly colder air and we will see the rain mix in with some sleet and snow around the Metro Area. I think it will be cold enough in the far NW suburbs to change over to pure snow by early Monday Morning. There might even be a small accumulation....but probably not in the I 95 corridor. The models are tending to move the storm track further West, which would get us into the heavier precipitation but cut down on the cold air. The temps should stay above freezing, so the roads will likely be OK either way. If you are going to the Redskins Game, be prepared to get cold and wet!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 5:17 PM 0 Comments

  Friday Night Post 12/28 The storm cutting through the Great Lakes will pull a cold front through here by Saturday Morning....we'll see a good rainfall overnight and there will be a few showers left on Saturday Morning. After the front goes through, the winds will turn to the West and the down sloping effect will push the temps into the 50s. That won't last long....another storm will come out of the Southern Plains on Sunday and pass to our South this time by early Monday Morning. We'll see some rain develop late in the afternoon on Sunday....there could be enough cold air aloft with this storm to produce some snow or sleet by early Monday Morning. It's too early to say if there will be any sort of accumulation. It should be dry for New Years Eve...then it gets cold for the first few days of 2008! More on that over the weekend.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 4:43 PM 0 Comments

  Thursday Evening 12/27 We will see yet another storm come at us from out of the Southern Plains on Friday. The center will track West of us, but there will be plenty of rain starting in the Afternoon on Friday and lasting into Saturday Morning. The deep upper level trof in the Mid West will send out one more storm after that Late Sunday and into Monday. There is still no cold air available here in the Mid Atlantic to make snow, so the Fri-Sat storm will be a rain event. I think there could be some rain during the Skins game on Sunday, but everything should clear by New Years Eve. There are some indications that a little snow or sleet could mix in Sunday Night. The Southeast Ridge will finally break down after New Years Day and a deep upper level trof will set up shop on the East Coast. The 850 MB temps drop to around -15 Celsius by Wednesday next week....that's cold! The high temps might not make it out of the 20s. It would be a shame to waste all of that cold air and not make a snowstorm, but I don't see anything yet. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible, but that's about it.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:56 PM 0 Comments

  Wednesday Night Post Another storm will come at us from the Southern Plains on Thursday....this one will pass to our West and be much weaker than the last one. It will give us a slight chance for a few showers on Thursday and hold the temps in the upper 40s. The upper level trof in the Mid West will continue to eject pieces of energy for the next several days. The next one will be late Friday into Saturday Morning...all of these will be rain events for us until we get into the first few days of 2008. The last wave on Monday Morning will break down the Southeast ridge and Arctic air will spill in here by the 1st. Highs will fall into the 30s and there could be a few flakes flying around!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 4:45 PM 0 Comments

  Christmas Night Post Well, we didn't get any snow, but it was a nice Christmas Day. Now, we'll turn our attention to a coastal storm that will roll through on Wednesday. The temps will be below freezing in many places early in the day, but I think the rain will hold off until the temps have a chance to recover. It's a little too warm in the upper levels for any snow, but if the rain were to somehow move in early in the day, there could be some freezing rain or sleet. I don't think will happen though. There will be a series of these storms moving out of the Southern Plains all the way through the start of the New Year....most of them rain makers. For those of you pulling for some snow, the NAO is forecast to go negative in early 2008. There should be a chance for a coastal storm and enough cold air to make snow shortly after New Year's Day. Keep the faith!

Comments or Questions: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:40 PM 0 Comments

  Christmas Weather Well, I have been trying to make a storm around Christmas for the last 7 days....it's going to be close. All of the models are developing a short wave in the Southern Branch of the jet on Christmas Day. It is starting to take on a more negative tilt on the guidance...that means it will have a better chance of developing a surface low that can turn to the North. The last couple of days, most of the models kept this system way South of us....but now, there is more of a bend up the coast. We should see increasing clouds during the Day on Christmas and there will be a chance for some light rain or snow overnight. The temps are marginal at all levels, so it's unlikely it will be a pure rain or snow event, if we manage to get into the precip shield. The storm will turn just off the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday and our chance for mixed precip will continue. I was pulling for a little light snow on Christmas with this thing a few days ago, but it doesn't look like that will work out.

Merry Christmas Everyone!  ¶ 1:31 PM 0 Comments

  Sunday Evening Update I'm getting a lot of calls Tonight about a star that's right below the Moon...it's Mars! What a cool sight....here's a link if you want to read more: http://www.space.com/spacewatch/sky_calendar.html  ¶ 8:24 PM 0 Comments

  Windy & Wet A dynamic storm system will approach from the West Today. The winds will turn to the South ahead of a strong cold front that will push through here This Evening. The South wind will scour out the low clouds and fog and the temps will jump into the upper 50s. There is a very strong low level jet going Today as well...the winds are going about 60 MPH a few thousand feet up. Some of the showers and storms later Today could grab some of that momentum and transfer it down to the surface. So, we could see wind gusts over 40 MPH late Today and Early Tonight. The front will pass this Evening and the sky will clear by early Monday Morning.
Here's a link to The Storm Prediction Center so you can check on the severe weather threat: http:///
I still see a short wave in the flow that will go by to our South late on Christmas Day and into Wednesday Morning. There could be a few light rain or snow showers...the temps will be on the fence again....sure would be nice to get some snow on the Holiday!


Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:05 AM 0 Comments

  Saturday Evening Update Strange to say this right before Christmas, but there could be some severe weather on Sunday. Below is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:

...MID ATLANTIC REGION... THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S RESIDE AT THIS TIME ABOUT 100-130 MILES OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NWD TO AT LEAST NRN NC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO VA/DELMARVA REGION. COOLING ALOFT ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM/ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BELOW 500 J/KG. DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARKLATEX/TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA...SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH RAPIDLY MOVING/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION/COUPLING WILL EXIST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST APPEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN FORECAST STORM MOTION OF 50-60KT...AND MEAN WIND IN EXCESS OF 70KT. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN INTENSE EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 400-500 M2/S2 OVER SOME PARTS OF ERN VA TO THE DELMARVA/SERN PA AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ¶ 5:36 PM 0 Comments

  Pre Christmas Weekend Well, here we are just a few days before Christmas and I'm still trying to make some Holiday snow! It's not going to be easy...but first things first. Today our flow out of the East will continue and that will bank a lot of moisture up against the mountains. There should not be much in the way of showers during the day, but overnight the atmosphere will saturate and we'll start to get fog, drizzle and light showers. On Sunday, a strong cold front will sweep through late in the day. The surface winds will turn to the South and the temps will jump into the 50s. There is a good chance for showers...possibly a t-storm...as the front goes through. The wind may gust over 30 MPH as well.
I still see a short wave in the 500 MB flow on all of the models coming out of the Southern Plains on Monday. It has a nice little vorticity maximum that will pass just South of us as well late on Christmas Day. At the surface, the models don't really do much with this wave...I don't really understand that. So, with that said, I will keep a chance for some light snow showers or flurries in the forecast for the afternoon on Christmas and into the night. I'll keep an eye on this thing...this is the kind of situation where one run of the models finally catches on...then boom...there's a snowstorm on the maps. We'll see....

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 9:03 AM 0 Comments

  Rain This Weekend An area of low pressure is passing to our South today and high pressure is building in from New England. Those two things will combine to keep our surface winds out of the East or NE all the way through Saturday. This means that moisture off the water will be wedged up against the mountains and we will see cloudy conditions with off and on periods of light rain, drizzle and fog. By Sunday, a strong wave will dig to our West and the surface winds will turn to the South...the temps will climb into the 50s, but we'll have a good chance for rain...maybe even a few t-storms to close the weekend. I still see a short wave in the flow coming in from the SW on Christmas Day, but it does not develop a surface reflection until it passes here....if that scenario holds, we would just see some flurries or light snow showers. That's good "ambiance" snow for the Holiday! We'll keep an eye on it.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:54 AM 0 Comments

  Rain This Weekend Today will be a quiet day...high pressure will be in control. A few clouds might drift in Tonight as a short wave in the Southern Branch of the jet moves out of the Southern Plains. This area of low pressure will pass to our South on Friday. There are a few models that try to produce precip here....there is a slight chance we could see a few showers...maybe even some sleet. A big area of high pressure will build in out of New England after that...it will turn our surface winds to the East and that will lock in clouds and light showers or drizzle for Saturday. A stronger storm will cut to our West on Sunday...that means warmer temps and a better chance for rain to close the weekend. Most of the computer models hold back a piece of energy that will ride in from the SW on Christmas Day. The guidance is all over the place on this thing, but since there is still a player on the field...I will keep the chance for some light snow in the forecast for Christmas Day. :)

Question or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 9:40 AM 0 Comments

  Messy Travel Weekend A weak clipper is going by to the North Today...its cold front will slip through here and possibly produce some light showers or flurries....no big deal. On Thursday, a storm will pass to our South...we'll just get a few clouds out of that. Over the weekend, a big piece of energy will come out of the Southern Plains...this will produce a big storm that will move into the Great Lakes. We will be on the "warm" side of the storm. That doesn't mean it's going to be balmy, but just too warm to snow. High pressure in New England on Saturday will keep our low level flow out of the NE and lock in the clouds....there will likely be some light showers, drizzle & fog. As the wave digs to our West on Sunday, the surface winds will turn South and the temps will climb a little...maybe to near 50. However, there will be a good chance for rain. This storm may cause travel delays in the entire Eastern half of the country on the weekend before Christmas. Speaking of Christmas....I think there is a chance we could see a little snow! It's an outside shot right now, but at least there is a player on the field....more on that in the next few days.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Again, I apologize for not being able to post your comments...the system still will not let me do it for some reason...but I enjoy reading them...so thanks! If you have something you want me to respond to...just send an e-mail.  ¶ 8:44 AM 0 Comments

  Quiet Today High pressure will be in control of the weather Today...that means quiet conditions. A clipper storm will pass to our North on Wednesday...this looks a little stronger on the models now. We could get a few brief showers as the cold front goes through Wednesday Afternoon. The center of the storm will miss North, but a nice little vorticity maximum will go over us and provide some lift. The storm in the Southern Branch of the jet we talked about yesterday is still there, but most of the models have it too far South to affect us. The Canadian actually gets us into the precip shield. With high pressure in New England and 850 MB temps below zero and the storm to our South...we might see a mix of light rain or snow Late Thursday and into Friday morning. I'll stick with that for one more model run. We'll talk more about the storm over the weekend tomorrow.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com

Join us again Tonight at 8PM for Weather Talk Radio...we're live! Stream the audio at: www.ipr365.com  ¶ 8:39 AM 0 Comments

  Winds Calm Down The winds should die down as we move into this evening....high pressure will take control of the weather on Tuesday. A weak clipper storm will pass to our North on Wednesday producing a few clouds, but no precipitation. After that, a short wave in the Southern Branch of the Jet Stream will approach from the West on Thursday. We'll likely see a few showers late in the day. At this point, it does not look like it will phase with the Northern Branch, so there might not be enough cold air to make snow. It will pass on Friday. Maybe we'll start to see more phasing on future model runs, but right now, it looks like a cold rain event at the end of the week.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 10:36 AM 1 Comments

  Wind Advisory Tonight As the storm pulls away...it will kick up some big winds! Gusts will be over 40 MPH Tonight across the Metro Area and might be over 50 MPH on the ridge tops in the Mountains. In addition, there will be some accumulating Lake Effect and up slope snows West of I-81. There's even a slight chance that a few of those snow showers could carry over into the Metro Area on the strong winds. The wind will die down a little on Monday, but you would still call it a "windy day".

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 4:38 PM 0 Comments

  Complex Storm Well, things behaved fairly close to how we thought...there was a light to moderate ice accumulation in the Northern and Western suburbs...just rain in DC and points South & East. The coastal low will take off during the day Today, and since it developed further South than the models indicated last night, our little cold air wedge has not has a chance to dislodge. So, I think there will be a mix of rain & snow showers during the day Today...no accumulations expected around the Metro Area. There could be a few inches in the Mountains...West of I-81. The winds will also kick up later Today...gusts could be over 30 MPH...that could cause a problem where there is some ice on tree branches...they could break off and fall on power lines. I have to admit, this was a hard one to forecast!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:54 AM 0 Comments

  Interesting Note 9:30 PM The secondary surface low is developing further South and East than most of the models were forecasting. It's near the North Carolina coast right now (9:30PM) . This means that the low level cold air might not get scoured out overnight, so where the temps manage to get below freezing from evaporative cooling, it may stay that way for most of the night. Significant ice will develop in these areas. It will be interesting to see what happens as this low explodes and goes by here on Sunday...I'll admit that I have been reduced to "nowcasting". :)

I still can't post any of the comments that you are sending in...sorry. However, I like reading your thoughts, so please continue to send them in!  ¶ 9:34 PM 2 Comments

  Ice Really Not Nice This is a very dynamic and complex storm...the Metro Area will experience everything from light snow to sleet to freezing rain to thunderstorms! The primary low is now moving out of the Southern Plains and will move into the Ohio Valley later Today. As it does, we will see a brief period of light snow or sleet late this afternoon...any accumulations will be less than one inch. Overnight, the primary low will be transferring its energy to the coast. As this happens, the warm air will move in aloft, but the cold will hold at the surface....that's the set up for freezing rain. The best chance for a significant ice accumulation will be North and West of the I 95 corridor. The warm air will win at the surface across Southern Maryland and Northern Virginia...that means just plain old rain in those areas. There is a lot of energy and upward motion in this system, so don't be surprised if you hear a little thunder Tonight. As the coastal low takes off on Sunday Morning, the low level cold air will try to wrap back in. It's unusual for us to get into the "wrap around", but there is a slight chance that things could end as a brief period of snow Sunday Morning. The most important thing to note on Sunday is the winds...they could be gusting close to 30 MPH. That could cause some power outages where the ice accumulates on the trees & power lines....

Whew! Complicated stuff..... :)

Comments or Questions: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 5:56 AM 2 Comments

  Ice is not Nice Well, my thinking has shifted a little in regards to the weekend storm. I don't think this will turn into a major snow storm for the Metro Area....but it could be a major ice event in some areas. The models have trended slower and a little warmer again Today...the secondary low development that we have been talking about might not take place until Sunday Afternoon. So, as the primary low comes up the spine of the Appalachians, overrunning precip will dominate through Saturday Night. That means if the temps get below freezing, they'll have a hard time warming up at the surface...As the energy transfers to the coastal low...the air will warm aloft, but not down below. We might start with some snow or sleet on Saturday Afternoon, but it would then change to freezing rain in many places....and it might rain hard for a while. That means a significant ice accumulation. The secondary low will crank on Sunday Afternoon, and as it pulls away, it will cool down all layers of the atmosphere and we should end the storm Late Sunday as a brief period of snow. The winds might be gusting over 30 MPH Sunday Night...that's not good for power lines and trees covered in ice. We are going to have a hard time drawing the lines between the snow/sleet/freezing rain/and plain old rain over the weekend. This is a tough one to forecast!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:32 AM 0 Comments

  Weekend Storm Thoughts Let's talk about Today first...looks like the storm passing by this afternoon will be mostly a cold rain event for the big cities...there could be some freezing rain or sleet North of DC and in the mountains. This has turned into a bad snow & ice event in Central PA...be careful if you are traveling.

Now for the weekend....my over all thoughts on the big picture have not changed from the scenario written in yesterday's blog...please read below. However, there have been some interesting trends on the short range models in the last 24 hrs. The GFS, NAM and the SREF have all trended colder with the thermal profile of the atmosphere and have moved the secondary low development on Sunday Morning further South and East. What does this mean for us? It means that there could be more snow and ice as opposed to rain...if this new solution holds to be true. The piece of energy that will create the weekend storm is just now coming into the Pacific Northwest, so the models will get a better look at it on the runs later Today...stay tuned!

Comments or Questions: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:35 AM 0 Comments

  Big Storm on Track First things first...we made it into the warm air Today, but the chilly stuff is moving South again Tonight. The final wave will ride along this front to our South on Thursday. It might be cold enough for a little freezing rain or sleet on Thursday in some spots...it should be mostly rain for the metro areas. This could be a bad ice and snow event in Central PA...if you are traveling.

Now...the weekend storm. Most of the models have come into fairly good agreement...which is unusual this far out....this is the way I see it right now: A storm system will move out of the Southern Plains on Saturday. It will track across the Gulf Coast then up the spine of the Appalachians....the wild card here is that it might pick up some moisture and energy from the tropical system down there (Olga)...if it does that, then this could turn into a MAJOR winter storm here in the East. All of the models bring that first low up into West NC then it fades out and transfers its energy to a new coastal storm near Virginia Beach by early Sunday Morning. That storm then explodes and rides up the coast into Maine by Monday Morning. It is still too early to say what kind of precip we will see here at home or even when it would start. Around the I-95 megalopolis, there could be anything from pure snow to sleet or even plain old rain. One thing is for sure...if this storm grabs that tropical feed, there will be a lot of precipitation...what ever it may be at your house. We'll be ironing out the details over the next few days...stay tuned!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:33 AM 0 Comments

  Showers then Big Weekend Storm? We have a lot of weather to talk about Today....let's start in the short term. That same front is stalled to our South again leaving our area in temperature "no man's land." We can't quite get into the warm air and we're just missing the really cold air. Waves of Low Pressure will continue to ride along this front through Thursday, bringing us off and on showers. The final wave on Thursday might have enough cold air on the North side for a mix of light rain/sleet or snow. We'll keep an eye on that.
I know all of you snow lovers are keeping an eye on the weekend! The NAO is still forecast to negative over the next few days and that will support a storm on the coast. Most of the computer models are now developing a nice big Nor'easter type storm over the weekend as well. Some of the models have the storm too far West for us to have snow...some have it too far East for us to get anything...and that's good! If the storm looked perfect for us to get slammed with a big snow right now, I would not be as excited. The computer models rarely get the details correct this far out. So, when you are looking at things on line the next few days, keep that in mind.

Join us again Tonight at 8 PM for Weather Talk Radio....stream the audio at http://www.ipr365.com/
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Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:27 AM 0 Comments

  Same Forecast The same front we have been talking about will be stalled in our neighborhood for the next 3 or 4 days. As waves of Low Pressure roll by, we will continue to see off and on showers and areas of fog. The temperatures will be very difficult to forecast...from Today through Thursday the high temps could be anywhere from 45 to 65, depending on where the front decides to set up. The computer models don't handle these kinds of micro details very well, so most of us will just be "nowcasting". The final wave should go through on Thursday and the front will push off shore. The weekend looks like it could be fun...the NAO is going negative and that should support a big storm on the East Coast at that time. There are no details yet, but be looking for the chance for another accumulating snow around the 16th...give or take a day....more on that later of course.

I still can't post any of your comments or questions here for some reason...sorry. Just send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com Thanks!  ¶ 8:43 AM 0 Comments

  Cool & Wet Again A warm front is stalled just to our South Today...this front will keep the weather unsettled all the way through most of next week. Weak areas of Low Pressure will ride along it and produce periods of rain for us....I don't think it will be cold enough to snow. It's very hard for the computer models to time these waves, so we basically have to "nowcast" them. In other words, look off to the Southwest and see what's coming then just put a chance for showers in the forecast everyday. If we make it to the South of the front sometime next week, the temps will jump into the 60s...if we stay on the other side, highs will be in the 40s. It's a tough call. For all of you snow lovers out there...the NAO is forecast to go negative in the next few days. Every time that has happened over the last few months, a big storm has developed on the East Coast. So, we'll watch for one of those around the middle of the month.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:30 AM 0 Comments

  Cool & Wet Today A warm front is stalled just to our South Today...this front will keep the weather unsettled all the way through most of next week. Weak areas of Low Pressure will ride along it and produce periods of rain for us....I don't think it will be cold enough to snow. It's very hard for the computer models to time these waves, so we basically have to "nowcast" them. In other words, look off to the Southwest and see what's coming then just put a chance for showers in the forecast everyday. If we make it to the South of the front sometime next week, the temps will jump into the 60s...if we stay on the other side, highs will be in the 40s. It's a tough call. For all of you snow lovers out there...the NAO is forecast to go negative in the next few days. Every time that has happened over the last few months, a big storm has developed on the East Coast. So, we'll watch for one of those around the middle of the month.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:24 AM 1 Comments

  Another Chilly Day A weak disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will swing through here Today...it has no surface reflection, but it should be strong enough to produce some light precipitation. The thermal profile of the atmosphere shows some warming up top, but not at the surface. That will create a light mix of snow, sleet or freezing rain at times. If there is any icing, it will be minor. This should not be a big event. A cold front will go through on Saturday...again, that could produce a light mix of precipitation. That front will stall just South of here and make all kinds of forecasting fun for us over the next several days. :) More on that this weekend.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:38 AM 0 Comments

  The Big Chill For the latest snow totals, click here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/products/?prod=PNS

Boy, did it get cold last night! The winds died, the sky cleared, there was snow on the ground, and the air was dry....a good brew to get the temps into the low teens in some spots! Today will be quiet...High Pressure in control will give us plenty of sunshine...but it will be chilly. A short wave will approach from the West on Friday and a weak surface front will go through Saturday Morning. Warmer air will try to move in ahead of this next system, but I think we could see a mix of some light rain/sleet or snow on Friday. It should be no big deal. That front will stall near us over the next five days and give us off and on chances for rain starting Saturday and into next week.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:29 AM 0 Comments

  Clipper Mania Well, once again I am humbled by Mother Nature....this was a situation that the models did not see. We actually had TWO clippers go by...the first This Morning with the the initial wave of snow then the second This Evening. The result will be 1" to 4" around the DC Metro Area and 3" to 6" North to the PA line from the mountains to Baltimore County. I have just under 6" on the ground here at my house at 7 PM on Wed Evening in Baltimore County. Good Stuff.... :)

Comments or Questions: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:13 PM 0 Comments

  Clipper Forecast on Track Looks like our clipper is on schedule....I expect a general 1" to 3" across the area. There could be some higher amounts, 4" or more possible in the Mountains. If this forecast is going to bust, it will be too low....the storm looks healthy. The track of the Surface Low should go through central VA, so the heaviest bands will be around the North side of the Low Center. I have checked all of the thickness parameters again this morning and they still point to a pure snow event...even for the Southern Suburbs. In the I-95 Corridor, the temps could stay near or below freezing all day, so the snow will stick to all surfaces. I will update later Today if I see any changes.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:03 AM 1 Comments

  Clipper on the way After taking a look at everything again this morning, the discussion below still stands. All of the model indicators are still saying this will be a pure snow...no mixing. The NAM model has backed off a little on its total QPF, but the GFS and the NGM have gone up from yesterday....so, my forecast storm total stays the same: 1" - 2". It should start sometime in the morning on Wednesday and last into the night. It will be mostly light snow and flurries, but there could be some trouble on the roads...especially Wednesday Evening after sunset. If I see any changes, I will update again later Today.

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Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 11:30 AM 0 Comments

  It's Clipper Time OK, now that we have had the big winds on Monday...let's talk about the mid week clipper. Wednesday still looks like the target day. Most of the computer models bring the center of the Low across Northern VA. This is a good track. I think the light snow will start sometime in the morning and end in the evening. I have looked at all of the precip type parameters, and I do not see anything that would indicate that it would mix or change to sleet or rain. The NAM and the GFS have the 1000 to 850 MB thickness below 1300 and the 850 to 700 MB thickness below 1540 for the entire event. BTW...if you are forecasting at home, these are the best parameters to look at for precip type. So, with that said...here's my first call at totals: 1" - 2"...there could be a little more in the mountains.

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If you have Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:15 PM 0 Comments

  Wind Damage Possible Monday I had to do an update here for possible wind damage on Monday. The NWS office in Sterling Virginia put out a special discussion on the strong winds...I don't think I've seen one like this before...no need for me to add anything...here it is:

***THIS IS A SUPPLEMENTAL AFD FOR TV METS***

PRVS SHIFT FCSTRS DID AN XLCNT JOB IN SETTING UP THIS PTNL WIND
EVENT. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE IS ON BUFKIT - WHEN THE TEMP
PROFILE JUMPS QUICKLY IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION THIS IS A SIGN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS CAN OCCUR. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IS SEEN ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SNDGS - RIGHT ARND 7 AM MON MRNG. THIS IN TURN SOUNDS
ALARMS FOR ME - I WORKED THE MID SHIFT ON 11/13/03. A WIND WRNG WAS
IN EFFECT FOR THE WRN AND NRN ZNS...AN ADVSRY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
RMDR OF THE CWA. THE WIND WAS SCREAMING WHEN I LEFT AT 7 AM. GRND
TRUTH THAT DAY INCLUDED 150,000 HOMES IN NOVA W/O POWER...A TRACTOR
TRAILER OVERTURNED ON I-81...TWO PEOPLE INJURED INCLUDING A STUDENT
IN STERLING VA WAITING FOR THE BUS WHO WAS STRUCK BY A FALLING TREE.

TV METS - NOT SURE WHAT NEWCASTS THERE ARE THIS EVE GIVEN
FOOTBALL...BUT I AM ASKING YOU TO ASK PARENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR THEIR
CHILDREN AT THE BUS STOP MON MRNG. THX.

WOODY!

Comments or Questions: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:02 PM 0 Comments

  Chilly Sunday Well...we had our first frozen precip event of the season last night. It wasn't much, but we had a few light sleet and snow showers. A warm front will be approaching from the South Today and we'll see a few overrunning showers. The thermal profile of the atmosphere might still allow some snow or sleet to mix in at times. The best chance for rain will be Tonight ahead of a very strong cold front that will go through in the Early Morning Hours of Monday. Arctic air will rush in behind this front and winds might gust over 40 MPH on Monday. Lake Effect snow showers will be going in the Mountains as well, and I would not be surprised to see a few of those flurries make it across the ridge tops into the Metro Area. Our best chance for snow will be during the Middle of the Week with a clipper storm. More on that tomorrow.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:55 AM 0 Comments

  A Little Ice? My thinking has not changed much since yesterday...the models are underestimating the cold of the air mass we'll have in place Today and Tonight. That will have a huge impact on the kind of weather we see on Sunday. The center of this big storm will plow into the Great Lakes on Sunday Morning...we will see a warm front approaching from the South. The big question for us is: When does the warm front go through? If the sky is clear early Tonight, the temps will have a chance to drop close to or below freezing. At the same time, a big area of High Pressure will be going across the NE...it's a good set up for cold air damming. If you are watching the models Today, keep two things in mind: 1. The precip comes in earlier than forecasted in an overrunning situation most of the time. 2. The models almost always try to break up the cold air damming too fast. So, with all of that said, I still think there is a chance that we could see 4 or 5 hours of snow, sleet or freezing rain Late Tonight or Sunday Morning. The warm air will eventually win later in the day. After that, the storm will transfer its energy to a new center near the New England Coast and a very strong cold front will move in here Late Sunday Night. I don't think the cold air will catch up to the moisture, but our temps will be falling all day Monday and some Lake Effect Snow showers might sneak in here by Monday Evening. I believe our best chance for accumulating snow will come during the middle of next week with a clipper storm.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 6:06 AM 0 Comments