Frozen Stuff Sunday? My thinking has not changed much since yesterday...the models are underestimating the cold of the air mass we'll have in place Today and Saturday. That will have a huge impact on the kind of weather we see on Sunday. The center of the big storm will plow into the Great Lakes on Sunday Morning...we will see a warm front approaching from the South. The big question for us is: When does the warm front go through? If the sky is clear early Saturday Night, the temps will have a chance to drop close to or below freezing. At the same time a big area of High Pressure will be going across the NE...it's a good set up for cold air damming. If you are watching the models Today, keep two things in mind: 1. The precip comes in earlier than forecasted in an overrunning situation most of the time. 2. The models almost always try to break up the cold air damming too fast. So, with all of that said, I still think there is a chance that we could see 4 or 5 hours of snow, sleet or freezing rain on Sunday Morning. The warm air will eventually win later in the day. After that, the storm will transfer its energy to a new center near the New England Coast and a very strong cold front will move in here Monday Morning. I don't think the cold air will catch up to the moisture, but our temps will be falling all day and some Lake Effect Snow showers might sneak in here Monday Night. I believe our best chance for accumulating snow will come during the middle of next week with a clipper storm.

To all of you trying to post comments...the system won't let me do it for some reason! So, if you have comments or questions...send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:48 AM 0 Comments

  Quiet Before the Storm A weak cold front will go though Today...there is a slight chance for a few showers. Another weak front will go through on Friday. Both of these will add on colder air as we go into the weekend. This could be setting up a wintry mix of precipitation for us on Sunday Morning. It still looks like a big storm will be moving into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. It will then transfer it's energy to a coastal storm in New England. There will be a swath of big snow from The Lakes into the NE...some areas could have blizzard conditions for a while. So, what does it mean for us? As the storm cuts West of here, a warm front will approach from the South Saturday Night. Overrunning precipitation will develop here by Early Sunday Morning. At that time, I believe we will be dammed in. The models are underestimating the strength of the cold air mass that we will have in place. If you are looking at the computer models right now, keep in mind they do not handle cold air damming very well from this far out. I believe we could see a few hours of pure snow here before it gradually changes over to a cold rain on Sunday. As everything passes on Monday, the arctic air will spill in behind the storm and temps should be falling all day. This NW flow will set up a big time Lake Effect Snow event Mon-Tue. As a matter of fact, I think some of those snow showers might make it into the Metro Area. Highs will be lucky to get out of the 20s on Tuesday....again, the models are underestimating the cold.

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 8:17 AM 1 Comments

  A Little Fun This Weekend? Let's talk about the short term first...the weather should be quiet Today with High Pressure in control. Another clipper storm will move North of here on Thursday...it will drag a cold front through with just a slight chance for a few showers. Now, let's focus on the weekend. Not much has changed in my thinking for the storm Sun-Mon. It still looks like an inside runner to me. However, if you're looking at the computer models Today, I think most have the track of the low too far West. It should move across Northern Ohio then into the NE. The arctic air mass that will already be in place across The Lakes should drop it a little further South...I like the UKMET position from the 00z run. This means that we could have some frozen precip at the start on Sunday Morning, but it would change over to all rain for us during the day. The GFS keeps trying to get some secondary surface low development on the warm front Sunday...if that happens, the cold air could stick around a bit longer. Either way, a monster shot of arctic cold air will spill in behind this storm...highs might stay in the 20s by the middle of next week!

Questions or Comments: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:52 AM 1 Comments

  Windy Today...Weekend Storm? The cold front is now pushing off shore...the winds will be gusting close to 30 MPH Today in the NW flow. Quiet weather on tap for Wednesday. Another clipper system will pass to our North Thu-Fri and bring us another chance for some light showers. After that, attention focuses on late in the Weekend. A strong piece of energy will eject out of the trof in the SW...all of the modeling that I have seen keeps the SE ridge in place as this happens. That's not good for us, if you want it to snow. Right now, the storm looks like it will be an inside runner and move from the Southern Plains into the Western Great Lakes Sunday and into Monday. It will drop some nice snow NW of that track, but for us...a mixed bag at best. We will get some overrunning precip on Sunday. If it starts early enough in the day, or during Saturday Night, then we would see a mix of snow and sleet for a while before it changes to rain. There is a hint at some secondary development of a surface low to our East...but too late for us to get in on the winter precip. At this point, it looks like mostly a rain event. However, it's still along way off and things could change so stay tuned!

Join us again for Weather Talk Radio Tonight at 8PM....Stream the audio at: http://www.ipr365.com/


If you have questions or comments, send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 7:39 AM 0 Comments

  Rain Today A strong area of low pressure will track to our West Tonight...that's not good if you want it to snow. Just a general weather lesson here: Most of the frozen precipitation around an area of low pressure is on the Northwest side of the storm. That's not always the case, but it works most of the time. So, we will be on the "warm" side of this storm. Off and on rain showers are likely during the day. The best chance for rain will be Tonight as the storm's cold front goes through. It has some decent dynamics with it, so I would not be surprised if we had a few T-Storms and some gusty winds. The weather will turn quiet during the middle of the week. There will be a weak system passing by to our NW again on Thursday & Friday....another chance for some rain showers. Next week looks more interesting for winter weather fans.

Join us again for Weather Talk on Tuesday Night at 8 PM...we do the show live and you can stream the audio at: www.ipr365.com

If you have questions or comments, send me an e-mail: weathertalk@wusa9.com  ¶ 9:39 AM 0 Comments

  Rain on the way The weather should stay quiet for most of Today...however, the clouds will be increasing as a storm system approaches from the South. An area of low pressure has developed in the Western Gulf and will be tracking up the spine of the Appalachians over the next 36 hours. Right now, it is producing some snow in West Texas! Don't expect any snow around here...the storm will pass to our West. If you wanted it to snow, the center of the storm would have had to pass to our East, in this situation. We will see some overrunning showers developing Late Tonight and during the day on Monday. A strong cold front will pass Early Tuesday Morning and that will put an end to the precipitation. For all of you snow fans out there....it looks like we will have to wait until the first few weeks of December. The pattern will flip to a cold regime on the East Coast between the 3rd and the 6th.  ¶ 8:04 AM 0 Comments

  Weather Talk Back in Action Welcome back! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. The weather should stay quiet for the rest of the Holiday Weekend. There will be a weak short wave that will pass North of here Tonight....it will produce a little cloud cover, but no precipitation. After that, we'll be looking to the South. A storm will be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. It looks like it will be an inside runner...the center of the storm will pass West of here. All of the cold air will be gone before it gets close, so it will all be liquid. It will be chilly on Monday, with a warm front South of us, but not cold enough to snow. There could be some snow for Holiday travelers on the way home across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes on the cold side of the storm.  ¶ 6:07 AM 0 Comments

  Weather Talk Off This is my last post until the end of the week. I want to wish everyone a safe and Happy Thanksgiving! Keep thinking snow...we'll see if we can dig something up next week. :)

Side Note: to all of you that have tried to post comments...the system will not let me get them on for some reason...sorry. Just send me a regular e-mail...Thanks!

Side - Side Note: I will still be doing Weather Talk Radio from the road, so please tune in Tonight at 8 PM. Stream the audio at: www.ipr365.com  ¶ 7:45 AM 0 Comments

  Warm for the Holiday There are a lot of things that will be happening in the atmosphere Today. First, the the short wave that triggered the rain & snow showers early this morning will lift out. We will then be dammed in with a NE surface wind...that means the clouds will have a hard time breaking up, even into Tonight. In addition, warm air advection will be taking place Tonight & Tuesday Morning in the upper levels...there could be a few showers over that time period as the mild air arrives. High pressure will then anchor its self off the coast and we'll see a SW flow develop at the surface...the temps will surge into the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. A strong cold front still looks like it's on track to come through by Friday Morning...that will flip the pattern back to a more winter-like regime for the rest of the weekend. By the way, I still think we have a shot at our first accumulating snow sometime next week...more on that later.  ¶ 7:49 AM 1 Comments

  Warm Up Next Week A weak clipper storm will move off the DelMarVa Coast by This Evening. There could be a few light rain showers as it passes Today...all of the precipitation will be very light. The storm will get a little stronger once it's East of here, so we could still see some showers on the backside Tonight. The temps will be falling into the 30s as there will be some weak cold air advection...so there could be some wet snow mixing in with the light showers. The roads will be fine locally for Holiday travel. Next week, the upper level ridge builds in again and that means the temps will climb....highs will be in the 60s by Thanksgiving! There will be a chance for rain though, as a strong cold front goes through by Friday Morning. The rest of the Holiday Weekend will feel like winter.  ¶ 8:03 AM 1 Comments

  Chilly Weekend The Clipper storm we talked about yesterday still looks on track for Tonight. This will be a quick mover and it will not produce allot of precipitation....so just a chance for some light rain or snow showers Tonight and Sunday Morning. The best chance of seeing snow will be in the Mountains at elevations above 1000 feet. There is one interesting note here...the NAM is forecasting a strong vort max to swing through on Sunday Night and actually produces some light snow in the Metro Area...we'll keep an eye on that. The upper level ridge will build back in early next week and that means the temps will jump into the 60s by the Holiday, but there will be a chance for rain on Thanksgiving.  ¶ 6:20 AM 1 Comments

  Clipper Weekend The weather will be breezy & cold Today, but quiet. The snow showers should stay in the Mountains. The clouds will increase on Saturday as a little clipper storm approaches from the NW. Most of the computer models track the surface low across Northern VA or Southern MD. We will likely see a few rain showers as it passes Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. It might be cold enough for a little snow to mix in, but I don't see any accumulations around the Metro Area at this point. The storm could drop an inch or two of snow in places that are above 1000 feet....then the weather will warm up as we move into the Holiday week. However, I still think there is a chance for some rain OR snow Thanksgiving Weekend...more on that later.  ¶ 7:50 AM 0 Comments

  Chilly Weather The rain will end behind this very strong cold front This Afternoon. The coldest air will not catch up to the precip in time for it to change over to snow around the Big Cities, but the temps will be in the 40s and the winds will be gusting close to 30 MPH! A raw day. In the mountains, there will be some accumulating snow later Today & Tonight...maybe a few inches. Quiet & chilly conditions expected on Friday. There could be a weak clipper system coming through over the weekend Saturday Night & Sunday Morning....it looks unimpressive at this point. None of the computer models have brought the big storm for early next week back to life yet. However, I see an interesting set up for Thanksgiving Weekend...that could be our next chance for frozen stuff....more on that over the next few days.  ¶ 7:30 AM 0 Comments

  Rain Thursday The strong cold front we talked about yesterday is still on track to roll though here on Thursday Morning. There should be a nice feed of moisture ahead of the front, so we'll have a fairly good chance for rain Late Tonight and into the day on Thursday. A surface wave will also develop on the front about the time it reaches us...this will slow it down and keep the chance for precip going. At the same time, there will be strong push of cold air behind it...now, it's very rare for the coldest air to catch up to the precip and change it over to snow around here....but it has happened. It's something to watch. The best chance for snow will be in New England. Quiet and chilly conditions expected after that on Friday & Saturday. Most of the computer models have lost the big storm for early next week. If you are pulling for some snow, don't worry about that...it might come back into the picture on the next few runs.  ¶ 6:48 AM 0 Comments

  Showers Again Another weak front will try and move through This Afternoon...it does not have much of a push behind it, so we might not clear until the end of the day. It also has no push of cold air behind it, so we will not see any changes in the temps. As a matter of fact, it will turn much warmer on Wednesday. A deep upper level trof will dig out in the Mid West...in response, our surface winds will pick up out of the SW and push the temps well into the 60s. A very strong cold front will go through early Thursday Morning. Many of the models develop a surface wave along the front, but after it passes here. This might get some snow flying in the NE, but it will miss us. Our next chance for frozen precip will come early next week..stay tuned...

Join us for Weather Talk again Tonight at 8 PM ! You can stream the audio live right here on the 9 News Now Weather Homepage.  ¶ 7:58 AM 0 Comments

  Mild Weather On The Way Well, the warm front that I thought would zip through here early this morning has not "zipped" at all! It's going to take a while to clear out Today...if it even does. An upper level ridge is trying to take shape on the East Coast to bring us some mild weather for a while...but it will have a difficult time. A series of short waves will be rolling through over the next few days knocking it down a little each pass. Those waves will also keep a chance for showers going through Tuesday. A strong cold front will finally flip the pattern back to chilly by Thursday & Friday.

Join us again for Weather Talk Tuesday Night at 8 PM...you can stream the audio live from our weather homepage here at www.wusa9.com . We are going to do some Global Warming stuff...hope you can listen!  ¶ 9:05 AM 0 Comments

  Warm Up Next Week The weather will be quiet, for the most part, on this Veterans Day... However, this is the anniversary of the big Veterans Day Storm 20 years ago in 1987...we had 11" of snow here in DC! It can happen this time of the year. :) We'll be going into a much warmer pattern next week. As the warm air comes in Tonight and Early Monday Morning, we could see a few rain showers. After that front passes, the high temps will jump into the 60s Tuesday & Wednesday. The warm up won't last very long...highs will be back in the 40s by the end of the week. As a matter of fact, things look rather cold for us as we move towards Thanksgiving...I would not be surprised if we get another early season snowstorm around that time.  ¶ 7:56 AM 0 Comments

  Chilly Saturday The clipper storm will move off shore This Afternoon and deepen quickly as it moves to the Northeast. On the backside, we'll have some gusty winds, but the skies will clear by Tonight. The weather should turn quiet on Sunday, but there will be some warm advection clouds starting to move in late in the day. A warm front will go through on Monday Morning and there could be a few light showers as that goes by. The high temps will climb into the 60s by Tuesday! The normal high temps this time of the year are in the upper 50s, so we'll have at least a few days with temps around 10 degrees above the norm.  ¶ 5:56 AM 0 Comments

  Clipper Friday The Clipper system we talked about yesterday is right on track. It will swing through here from the NW overnight and explode when it gets off shore into a powerful storm. We will not make it into the heavy precipitation. However, we can expect some light rain showers during the day Today and possibly some light snow showers Tonight. The Metro Area will have to wait for the sun to go down before there can be any wet flakes of snow making it to the ground. In the higher terrain to the West, it's likely that some light snow will be falling most of the day. Elevation will be the key to precip type during the day...anything above 1000 feet should be frozen. Even if we see some light snow showers around the big cities Tonight, the roads will be fine. I think the surface temps will stay above 32 in most areas. As the storm intensifies off shore on Saturday, we could have some gusty winds here to start the weekend.  ¶ 8:06 AM 0 Comments

  First Flakes? Let's start with Today...a weak vort max will swing in from the Ohio Valley...this will produce some rain or snow showers in the Mountains and just some cloud cover East. The next piece of energy that drops into the base of the trof is the one we'll be watching for Friday Night. Most of the models now give it a surface reflection, so we can call it a Clipper. It will approach on Friday from the NW and the associated vort max will move in just South of us Friday Night and Early Saturday. There are a few things going here for some light snow: 1. The fact that it is coming through at night helps...the surface temps will be above 32, but most of the column above will be below freezing...so the flakes will be able to make it to the ground without melting. 2. The fact that the vort max passes South is good for precip...it has been my experience that when they pass North, we miss the rain or snow. The surface storm will actually explode off shore, but too far away for us to get into the heavy precip Saturday Morning. However....I do believe we have the chance for our first light snow of the season Friday Night. Don't expect much accumulation...if any...around the Metro Area...but there could be a nice coating in the Mountains.  ¶ 7:51 AM 0 Comments

  The Big Chill The upper level pattern has amplified...a nice deep trof is now in place over the Eastern part of the US. That means some chilly temps for us....however....Today, the winds will still be coming out of the West and that means a little down slope warming. As the air comes down the Eastern side of the mountains, it compresses and warms. On Thursday, we loose that warming wind direction....so it should be in the 40s for afternoon highs. In addition, I think the winds will die down Tonight and set up for some good radiational cooling...lows will drop into the 20s for the first time this season in many places. Thursday & Friday will be the coldest days this week. It still looks like a little clipper system comes through on Friday, but it won't have much moisture to work with...so maybe just a few light showers or flurries.  ¶ 7:43 AM 0 Comments

  A Taste of Winter Behind the front that came through this morning is the coldest air mass of the season....highs will struggle to get out of the 40s Wed through Friday. There will also be a series of vorticity maximums or "vort maxes" that will be diving in from the NW in this amplified wave pattern. The first one will come through on Wednesday and it could kick up some snow showers in the Mountains...but probably only some instability clouds for the Metro Area. The second one comes in on Friday...this one might be strong enough to have a surface reflection and be called a "clipper". It could have enough juice to produce a light mix of rain or snow showers East of the Mountains as well. Most of the computer models explode the storm off the NE Coast...it could turn into the first snowstorm of the season in New England.

Join us again for Weather Talk tonight at 8 PM on Internet Partnership Radio! You can stream the audio right here at http://www.wusa9.com/ on the weather homepage...look for the link near the bottom of the page.  ¶ 7:42 AM 0 Comments

  Chilly Weather The strong cold front still looks on track to come through here late Tonight or early Tuesday morning. We'll likely see some rain showers as it passes and the winds will kick up behind the front on Tuesday afternoon. This front will usher in our first hint at winter-like conditions...highs will struggle to get out of the 40s Wed-Fri and the overnight lows will drop into the 20s for the first time away from the City! Some of the computer models are now hinting at a clipper zipping through here on Friday...most notably the UKMET and the Canadian. If this storm develops, it could be cold enough for a mix of light rain & snow at the end of the week...stay tuned...  ¶ 8:37 AM 0 Comments

  Big Changes Next Week There will be a weak vorticity maximum going through Southern PA Today...this will create some cloud cover, but no precipitation. The skies will clear Tonight. The clouds will roll right back in on Monday. A strong cold front will be approaching from the West...it should go through Early Tuesday Morning. There could be a few showers as it passes. The coldest air mass of the season will move in behind the front by the middle of the week. Highs will only be in the 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s! I think there could even be some Lake Effect snow showers in the Mountains Tuesday Night or Wednesday. There should be no snow around the Metro Area...not yet anyhow. :)

Join us again for Weather Talk Tuesday Night at 8 PM...you can now stream the audio on our Weather Homepage here at www.wusa9.com !  ¶ 7:53 AM 0 Comments

  Noel Passes East What is left of Hurricane Noel will pass a few hundred miles East of the DelMarVa Coast Today. It is now extratropical...kind of a cross between a Nor'Easter and a Hurricane. It is a huge storm system...several hundred miles across. Because of that, it will still have an impact on our weather here at home. We will see some cloud cover on the Western fringe of the storm and winds will gust close to 30 MPH at times. At the Beaches, expect big waves and wind gusts over 50 MPH. The New England beaches may see winds close to hurricane force later Today and Tonight. After the storm goes by, the weather will be quiet Sunday & Monday. A very strong cold front will go through on Tuesday with a chance for showers. More on that tomorrow.  ¶ 5:50 AM 0 Comments

  Noel...Close Call for Beaches The weather will be fairly quiet again Today at home...the big story is still Noel. It is a huge storm now and it will begin to loose its tropical characteristics Today and Saturday. That does not mean it's going to weaken all that much. All of the computer models keep it off shore now as it passes going into the start of the weekend. It will be close enough, I think, for the DelMarVa beaches to have wind gusts over 50 MPH and some rain on the western edge of this big storm. New England will have the worst effects from Noel. I think there will be wind gusts over 70 MPH and some heavy rain from Long Island up through Boston. It may not be classified as a hurricane when it gets there, but there will be hurricane force winds. On the back side of the storm for us, we could have some gusty conditions here on Saturday. As is often the case, a big storm going up the coast late in the season signals a huge change in the weather pattern...we will get our first taste of winter like weather by the middle of next week.  ¶ 8:19 AM 0 Comments

  Noel...Where are you going? In the short term for us at home Today...a weak cold front will roll through with a slight chance for a few showers. This front will cool the high temps back into the 50s on Friday. The big weather story is still Noel. As of this writing (8:30 AM) Noel was getting stronger and moving slowly and erratically...maybe drifting to the North. The Hurricane Center is banking on the storm getting picked up by the upper level trof that's moving across the East Coast right now....I'm not so sure. As a storm gets stronger, it tends to create its own environment. In other words, if Noel can get a little stronger, then it might help to re enforce the upper level ridge around it and not get swept away by this trof. If it gets left behind Today, then this storm will have to wait for the next trof on Saturday. In the short term, it could even drift back to the West a little. Bottom line...we should not write off Noel as a "fish" storm for the East Coast just yet. You'll notice that the Hurricane Center's forecast has even moved back to the West a little this morning...stay tuned.  ¶ 8:37 AM 0 Comments