Boooooooooooooooo Looks like some great weather Today for Trick or Treat....high pressure will be off the coast to our East and that means our surface winds will turn SW. After a chilly start, temps should make it close to 70 this afternoon. A cold front will go through on Thursday...it will not have much moisture to work with and all of the dynamics will stay North...so just a slight chance for a shower.
The real interesting weather is way down South...Tropical Storm Noel. For those of you that are looking at the computer models on this one...don't be fooled...most of them are developing an extratropical low North of Noel. So, you'll see two "lows" on the maps. In my mind, there is still allot of uncertainty as to what happens to Noel. I know the Hurricane Centers track is for it to get caught in the flow and move up the East Coast way off shore. However, if it comes off of Cuba Today and intensifies quickly, it might get left behind and drift around for a while. Bottom line is, I don't think the track is a slam dunk forecast.
Just as a side note...there could be some rain Thursday or Friday in Southern MD or Virginia coming on shore from something we call an "inverted trof" that will be North of the extratropical low...interesting stuff.  ¶ 8:00 AM 0 Comments

  Halloween Forecast After another frosty morning, the weather should be warming up over the next few days. High pressure will move East of us by this afternoon, so our winds will turn to the SW by later this evening. The flow will be out of the South on Halloween...the temps should be able to jump to near 70 in the afternoon...good weather for Trick or Treat. A cold front will go through on Thursday with a slight chance for a shower...this front will also knock the high temps back into the upper 50s or low 60s. The big weather story is Tropical Storm Noel. All of the computer models now keep it off shore as it goes up the East Coast Friday and Saturday. The only way this will not happen is if it stalls down near Florida for an extra day. That would allow the big area of High Pressure behind our front on Thursday to get in place for a block off the NE Coast.

Join us again Tonight at 8 PM for Weather Talk on Internet Partnership Radio. We will be doing another Winter Outlook! You can stream the sudio at: www.weathertalkradio.com Just look for the link to IPR in green on the front page.  ¶ 7:53 AM 0 Comments

  Quiet Weather Looks like the weather will be fairly quiet over the next few days. We could see another round of frost again Tonight, but that's about the only thing to talk about. High Pressure will move over us Today and off the coast by Wednesday. That means the winds will gradually turn to the SW by Halloween. High temps should make it up close to 70 by mid week. That's good news for Trick or Treaters...nothing worse than having to put a winter coat over your costume. :) A weak cold front will move through on Thursday with a slight chance for a shower. We'll keep an eye on Tropical Storm Noel...there are a few computer models that actually take it up the East Coast over the weekend...the NHC forecast keeps it way down South.

Join us again for Weather Talk this Tuesday Night at 8 PM on Internet Partnership Radio...we will have a long range forecasting expert on with his Winter Outlook! You can stream the audio at www.weathertalkradio.com Just look for the link in green on the front page.  ¶ 8:47 AM 0 Comments

  First Frost After a good rain event over the last few days, we will have a chance for our first frost of the season Tonight. A cold front came through last night and there will be some fairly strong cold air advection during the day Today. The winds will be gusty as the cold air comes in, but they should drop off Overnight. Any clouds that hang around during the day will dissipate This Evening. We will have the three ingredients needed for some good radiational cooling...light winds, clear skies and dry air. The dew points are dropping into the low 30s. So, there could be some frost by early Monday Morning away from the City and the Bay. Temps might drop below freezing for the first time in the mountains! Quiet weather is expected for the start of the work week.  ¶ 7:53 AM 0 Comments

  Clearing Up Today What a fantastic rain event! Other than having a tropical system come through, there could not have been a better set up for a drought busting rain. We will end up with 2" to 4", on average, across the area going back to Wednesday. This will not make up the entire deficit for the year, but it will help. The weather should be dry this afternoon, but a cold front will come through Tonight and that will bring a slight chance for a shower. High pressure will take control on Sunday & Monday...that means dry conditions and cool temps. We could see our first frost of the season away from the city Sunday Night!  ¶ 5:52 AM 0 Comments

  More Rain ! We have a very good set up here going into the weekend for a soaking rain event. A big area of High Pressure will be drifting off the NE coast and that huge area of Low Pressure in the upper levels is still in the Ohio Valley. The circulation around these two features will pump big time moisture northward from the Gulf and the Atlantic. It will be like squeezing a tube of toothpaste full of rain right at us...the High will push from the East and the Low will push from the West. At the surface, there is even a warm front that will move in from the SE overnight. This will also enhance the precipitation. So, all of the ingredients are there for a soaker....could be up to 2 inches of rain in some spots. With that said...just like when you are cooking...sometimes all of the ingredients are there, and the dish does not come out right...let's hope that Mother Nature uses all of these elements to cook us up a nice drought relieving rainfall event.  ¶ 8:23 AM 0 Comments

  Good Stuff.... It looks like our consecutive days streak with high temps above normal at National Airport is going to come to an end at 34. The normal high Today is 65 and I think it will struggle to get out of the 50s. It will feel even cooler than that with a good breeze coming out of the NE and occasional showers. The upper low to our west will continue to pump moisture up and over the stalled surface front in VA Today and Friday. You can see the set up on the water vapor loop clearly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus.html
Just click on the button that says "water vapor loop" on the right for that latest images. The area of high pressure we talked about yesterday in the Great Lakes will not be strong enough to suppress the clouds and precip as it passes into New England on Friday. The upper low will then lift out Saturday and keep the chance for showers going into the start of the weekend.  ¶ 8:22 AM 0 Comments

  A Good Rain This is about a good a set up as we could ask for in the middle of a drought...a side from a tropical system coming through. Our front is now stalled across VA and we will see small areas of low pressure ride along it over the next 24 to 36 hrs. That means a nice overrunning rain event...most of the models are coming up with a QPF of 1 to 2 inches by the end of the day Thursday! This front will not be able to move until a big area of high pressure moves from the Great Lakes into New England. The question for us is: will it come close enough and be strong enough to suppress all of this rain activity to the South? It will be a close call...we may end up in a squeeze play between the upper low to our SW and the surface High to our NE...that would continue the shower activity through the end of the week. If the High is strong enough, we will get a break from the rain starting late Thursday into Friday. Either way, the upper low will open up and move NE giving us another chance for rain on Saturday....this is good stuff!  ¶ 8:44 AM 0 Comments

  Rain Likely Today will be day 33 of our streak of above normal temps at National Airport...that may break by Thursday. In the short term, we have a slow moving front that will drift through here by early Wednesday Morning. It has been tapping into moisture from the Gulf, so I believe there is a good chance for rain...especially Tonight. The front will not make it very far to the South on Wednesday...it will have to wait for a big area of High Pressure to drop in from the Great Lakes Wednesday Night to push it South. That means that we will still have a chance for some overrunning showers on Wednesday...it should clear up by Thursday. The winds will shift to the NE and we might have our first day in a while with below normal temps.

Join us tonight at 8 PM for our first broadcast of Weather Talk on Internet Partnership Radio! You can instant message us questions at any point in the show...stream the audio at www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 8:08 AM 0 Comments

  Showers in the Forecast Today will be day 32 in our string of above normal high temps at National Airport. The streak may keep going through Mid Week, but I think we are going to get some rain. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday...it will be a slow mover because there will be no push behind it in the upper levels. At the surface, high pressure is moving off the coast and we will be in a Southerly flow ahead of the front. So, it should be able to grab some moisture off the Atlantic and from the Gulf. The front will not make it very far to our South on Tuesday Night...a big area of low pressure will be developing, and eventually getting cut off , in the upper levels across the Ohio Valley. That will stop the progress of this front and we might be able to get some overrunning showers on Wednesday as well. There is a wide range in model solutions on the placement of this area of low pressure and that gives several possibilities for our weather at the end of the week.

Our radio show Weather Talk has moved! We are now on Tuesday Nights at 8 PM, broadcasting on Internet Partnership Radio. You can always stream the audio here: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 8:29 AM 0 Comments

  Summer Temps Again Well, we just ended one streak at National Airport (34 days with no Precipitation) but we still have another going strong. Today will be the 31st day in a row that we will have a high temp above normal! The last time the high for the day was below the mark was September 20th. The high was 75 and the normal for that date was 78. We will be in the low 80s on Monday and probably in the 70s through mid week, so the streak will go for a few more days. The normal highs right now are in the mid 60s. The other big story is the chance for rain next week...most of the computer models develop a big cut off area of low pressure across the Ohio Valley by Mid Week. This will give us a chance for some showers Tuesday through Friday. Of course, the details are still a little fuzzy right now...there are a few models that place the low too far to the west for us to get any rain. We will talk more about this on Monday.

Our radio show Weather Talk has moved! We are now on Tuesday Nights at 8 PM broadcasting on Internet Partnership Radio. You can always stream the audio here: http://www.weathertalkradio.com/  ¶ 7:50 AM 0 Comments

  Nice Weekend After some much needed rain on Friday Night, it looks like we are setting up for another nice weekend. It will be a little breezy Today and slightly cooler behind the front that went through early this morning. If you are a summer weather fan, then you'll like the setup for early next week...at the surface, High pressure will slide off the coast by Sunday afternoon turning the winds to the SW....in the upper levels, a ridge will build back. That all adds up to temps in the 80s by Monday & Tuesday. The normal highs this time of the year are now in the mid to upper 60s! A big cut off area of low pressure will develop in the Mid West and drift our way by the middle of the week. This will bring us a chance for a few showers by Tuesday & Wednesday.

Our radio show Weather Talk has moved! It is now broadcast on Tuesday Nights from 8 to 9 PM on Internet Partnership Radio. You can always stream the audio at: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 5:54 AM 0 Comments

  Rain Today! It still looks like a strong cold front will roll through here Tonight. Showers and T-storms will be scattered around all day Today in the moist Southerly flow...dew points are in the 60s, so there is plenty of juice in the atmosphere. There is still the possibility of severe weather, if the sun can break out of the cloud deck. That would cause big time destabilization and we might get some supercell storms to pop up. There is also a good amount of directional wind sheer, so those storms would be rotating. We will at least get some garden variety storms just from the forcing of the surface front itself. As we go into the weekend, it should stay dry. However, there will be a strong vorticity maximum passing to our South on Saturday Afternoon. This should only provide enough lift for some afternoon cumulus clouds, but it's worth watching...there could be a few isolated showers popping up. It will get warm again Sunday & Monday....more about this over the weekend.  ¶ 8:49 AM 0 Comments

  New Record? The big question today is: will we break the record at National Airport for consecutive days with no measurable precipitation? The answer: maybe. There is a chance for a few scattered showers as a weak piece of energy lifts into PA and NY...not sure if one of these will roll across DCA. If not, this will be day 34 and we'll break the record. Our next chance for rain will be late Friday in the form of some t-storms. A strong cold front will approach during the evening hours...most of the upper level dynamics will miss us to the north, but we should get some rain. If the sun manages to break out during the day, we could still have a severe weather event. There will be plenty of directional wind sheer, so a few supercell storms could develop that would be rotating...again, it all depends on the sunshine. After that, it looks like another dry weekend. It's going to get hot again early next week...temps might be 15 or 20 degrees above normal by Monday.  ¶ 8:30 AM 0 Comments

  Dry Stretch Record Today will likely be day 33 in a row with no measurable precipitation at National Airport...this ties us for number one on the all time list with the dry streak that ended on 9/08/1995. We may not break the record though...the atmosphere will have some juice on Thursday and there will be a few pieces of energy rotating around the main Low in the Upper Mid West...there should be some scattered showers. Our best chance for rain will be late Friday. This very dynamic system will finally begin to move East and it will take a strong surface cold front along with it. There will be another round of severe weather in the Plains Today and one on Thursday in the Ohio Valley in association with this system. The SPC has us "outlooked" for the possibility of severe weather at the end of the week as well: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
We will talk more about this on Thursday.  ¶ 8:49 AM 0 Comments

  Rain at the End of the Week Well, this will probably make day 32 in a row with no measurable precipitation at National Airport. There is a short wave that will pass to our NW late Today. Most of the rain will miss, but there is a slight chance a few showers could pop up Tonight or on Wednesday...the best chance will be in the Mountains. By the time we hit the end of the week, the main part of the Low in the Mid West will finally lift out. At the surface, a fairly strong cold front will push through on Friday. There are some indications that it will be able to grab a little moisture from the Gulf before it gets here...that would enhance the coverage of the shower and t-storm activity. Looking further down the road, the ECMWF and the UKMET are both indicating that the pattern will turn wetter once we get past this Weekend.  ¶ 7:09 AM 0 Comments

  Great Weather...Again Well, it's another beautiful autumn day here on Monday...good stuff, but we need some rain! Today is day 31 in our stretch of dry weather at National Airport. There is a system in the Plains that will eject a piece of energy towards us on Tuesday...but it will loose it's punch before it gets here. There will only be a slight chance for a shower, and that would be mostly in the mountains. After that, the upper level ridge builds back in by Wednesday & Thursday. High temps could be up close to 80 again! The next real chance for rain will be on Friday Afternoon with strong cold front...we'll talk more about that over the next few days. We really need some help from the tropics, but right now there is nothing brewing.  ¶ 11:12 AM 0 Comments

  We Need Some Rain Today will be 30 days in a row without measurable precipitation at National Airport in DC. That puts us in 3rd place on the all time list for dry stretches of weather in DC...2nd place was a run of 32 days ending October 31, 1963...1st place a 33 day run of dry weather ending September 8, 1995. We will at least make it into second place...I don't see a chance for rain until late in the day Tuesday. That chance comes in with a warm front that will pass by early Wednesday morning. The high temps will jump into the upper 70s to near 80 by the end of the week!

I would like to invite everyone to join us this afternoon from 3:05 to 4PM for our last Weather Talk radio show on WCBM 680 AM in Baltimore...we are moving the show to Internet Partnership Radio on Tuesday Nights from 8 to 9 PM. I would like to thank everyone for listening to the show on WCBM over the last two years and I hope you will fallow us over to the Internet! We will post details on our website: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 7:48 AM 0 Comments

  No Rain Until Next Week High pressure will be in control of the weather for the next few days...that means it will stay dry with chilly nights and mild days. The dew points are in the 30s and low 40s, so the air is dry....tonight the sky will be mostly clear and the winds will be light so the temps will have a chance to drop into the 30s in the NW suburbs. There might even be some areas with frost on the ground by early Sunday morning! Our next chance for rain will come in by late in the day Tuesday. The upper low in the SW part of the country will eject a strong piece of energy and it will move into the Mid Atlantic by the middle of the week. High temps will climb into the mid 70s by then as well.

Weather Talk Radio: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 5:56 AM 1 Comments

  Nice Weekend Our big area of upper level low pressure will begin to pull away into New England Today....the winds will kick up a little again, but we should stay dry. It will be interesting the next few nights to see if there will be any frost in the suburbs. Tonight, the only thing that might prevent the temps from dropping fast is the wind...any clouds that develop in the afternoon should dissipate after sunset. We will at least drop into the 40s in most locations by early Saturday. Overnight on Saturday might be a different story...the dew points should still be in the 30s and the winds will die down, so we might see some areas with frost on the ground by early Sunday. Overall, it looks like a nice weekend though with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Our next chance for rain will be Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

Have a good weekend!

Weather Talk Radio: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 7:52 AM 0 Comments

  October is Here Real October weather is finally here...another cold front went through last night with more scattered showers and t-storms...and that was the real "cold" front. It still looks like the upper level low will pass through Maryland later Today. It will create very unstable conditions with lots of positive vorticity advection and a nice pool of cold air aloft. If the sun were to manage to break through this afternoon, I would not be surprised to see a few t-storms that are capable of producing small hail. If the sun can't cook up the atmosphere, we'll just have breezy & cool conditions and a slight chance for showers. The high temps will stay in the 60s through Saturday as this big upper level low parks itself in New England and produces a cool NW flow of air for us. After Today, our next chance for rain will hold off until Monday or Tuesday next week.
Isn't weather fun? 90s at the start of the week to 60s at the end!  ¶ 7:58 AM 0 Comments

  The Change is Here We had a cold front go through last night with some scattered showers and t-storms...that front is now stalled along the DelMarVa coast. It will not make any further progress to the East because it is being pulled back, with waves of surface low pressure, by the bowling ball of upper level energy diving through the Great Lakes. You can see it here on the Water Vapor Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html
That big cut off low will continue to the SE and roll through here Thursday Evening. The real cool air will not make it in until it passes. I think there will be a chance for showers Today and Tomorrow with this feature. Although, the best chance Today will be across Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore. The low will begin to lift out on Friday...there could be a few pieces of energy rotating around the base of the trof through Saturday, but our best chance for precip will be in the next 36 hrs. High temps will be in the 60s into the start of the weekend!  ¶ 8:31 AM 0 Comments

  T-Storms Possible Tonight It still looks like our big pattern change is on track....however, it's going to be a hot one Today with near record high temps around 90! A cold front will approach from the West Tonight...t-storms should develop in the Mountains This Evening then move into the Metro Area Overnight. The front itself will not make it through until early Wed Morning. It will probably slow down in response to the deep upper level trof digging in the Great Lakes. Almost all of the computer modeling brings a cut off 500 MB low across the Mid Atlantic late Wednesday and Thursday. A few models actually hint at a nice surface low as well, which would produce a good rain event. At the very least, the atmosphere will be unstable and we'll see some scattered showers...the high temps will fall into the 60s!  ¶ 8:00 AM 1 Comments

  Big Changes Mid Week Our winds shifted to the ENE last night after that backdoor front went through...that's why we had the fog and low clouds this morning. The atmosphere really has to work to burn that stuff off this time of the year. After one more warm day on Tuesday, this whole pattern is about to flip. At the surface, a cold front will approach from the West late Tuesday....it will have a hard time going through. The big upper level trof will be digging across the Ohio Valley and most models actually cut off a 500 MB low. The center of this upper level low should drift right over us by Thursday & Friday...that means much cooler temps and unsettled weather. The highs will only be in the 60s and we should see a chance for some rain! It's actually very fun to watch what happens, weather wise, under these cut off lows...the atmosphere can do strange things. :)  ¶ 8:40 AM 0 Comments

  Pattern Flip Next Week Let's start with today...it looks like that weak backdoor front we have been talking about will be able to make it across the PA line this afternoon. It triggered some fairly big storms last night across New York state, so I think it will at least have a chance to create a few scattered t-showers around here this afternoon and evening. The atmosphere has plenty of moisture to work with...dew points are in the 60s.... but still only a 30% chance for precipitation. That front will retreat to the North on Monday and we'll be left in a warm air mass again. It still looks like the whole pattern will flip during the middle of next week. A strong cold front will go through on Wednesday. Most of the longer range models even develop a 500 MB cut off low in the NE by the end of the week. We'll talk more about this on Monday.

Join us for Weather Talk this afternoon at 3:05 PM....you can stream the audio at: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 8:23 AM 0 Comments

  Changes Next Week! The weather over the weekend will be very summer like....but next week, the whole pattern is going to flip. In the short term, I believe a weak backdoor cold front will approach from the North on Sunday. There is plenty of moisture around....dew points are in the 60s...so this front will have a chance to produce a little precipitation. If sunshine can break out on Sunday, there might even be enough instability to trigger a few t-storms. The NAM and NGM are both coming up with measurable precip. However, I would only put a 30% chance on this. Next week, things will change...a big dip in the Jet moving in from the West will finally have enough of a push to break down the ridge here on the East Coast. At the surface, a strong cold front will move through during the middle of the week with another chance for some showers. After this big change, the set up will be much better to produce precipitation.  ¶ 5:52 AM 0 Comments

  Warm Weekend I see some big changes for us by the time we get to the middle of next week....but for now, it's the same stuff as we move into the weekend. We will have some fog and low clouds during the overnight and early morning periods then it will all burn off and the heat will crank. Highs are expected to be well into the 80s through Monday next week. A weak backdoor cold front will approach on Sunday, but have a hard time making it into our neighborhood. It will pull back to the North in response to a big dip in the Jet that will be developing to our West. This wave will be able to pull a strong cold front through by the middle of the week....that will be a pattern buster. I see the high temps falling into the 60s & 70s and a few chances for rain...we'll talk more about this over the weekend....for now...enjoy the summer weather...if that's your thing. :)  ¶ 8:11 AM 0 Comments

  Summer Weather in October This will be one of the warmest stretches we have ever seen in October. Summer weather fans will rejoice! The upper level ridge will hold strong through the weekend. Our low level flow will continue from the SE at times, so we will still see areas of fog developing during the overnight periods....but as soon as it burns off, the temps will shoot into the 80s in the afternoons! The normal high temps for the next few days are in the low 70s. A weak backdoor front will come through on Sunday, but it will only cool things off by a few degrees. The real pattern change, as shown by the ECMWF & the UKMET will arrive during the middle of next week....our chances for rain will go up and the temps will come down...until then, more of the same....  ¶ 8:50 AM 0 Comments

  Boring Weather Continues The low level ESE flow produced some low clouds & fog This Morning and will likely do it again by Thursday Morning. There is an outside shot at some light shower activity as a weak front approaches from the NW and bumps into that Atlantic moisture on Thursday. However, the old forecasting axiom will probably hold here: "When in Drought, Leave it Out". It should stay dry through the tail end of the weekend. Late Sunday a backdoor cold front will approach from the North...there might be a few showers with that. It looks like the upper level ridge might break down a little early next week...that means our rain chances will go up slightly. We need some help from the tropics, but right now there is nothing brewing that could get into our neighborhood any time soon.  ¶ 8:18 AM 0 Comments

  More of the Same I don't think much will change for us weather wise through the end of the week. A series of shortwaves will try to move into the upper level ridge over the next few days, but have little success at knocking it down. With a big surface High off the NE coast, our winds will continue from the ESE. That means we could have some cloud cover and maybe some drizzle overnight the next few days, but that's about it in the rainfall department. Our next real chance for rain is late in the weekend or early next week. Most of the computer models hold off on the precip until Monday....with a strong cold front. The ECMWF depicts this front as a "backdoor" while most others have it come in from the West. This front may finally break the pattern next week.  ¶ 8:34 AM 0 Comments