Still No Rain! The weather will stay nice & quiet in the short term as a big area of High Pressure moves off the NE coast. Our winds will shift to the SSE over the next few days and the temps should be able to make it into the Upper 70s to near 80. A weak shortwave will try to slam into the upper level ridge Tonight & Tuesday, but it will make very little progress to the East....that means all of the rain will stay in the Ohio Valley. All of the computer models agree now that a Tropical Area of Low Pressure will develop off the East Coast of Florida over the next few days. They all take it due West into The Gulf of Mexico...that means no tropical rains for us. Rain chances will be sparse for most of the week.

If you like to take weather observations at home and would like to join a professional network, check out the Atlantic Coast Observation Network: http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACONdata.html

Thanks to Kevin Shaw from Gaithersburg for that link!

Weather Talk Radio: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 8:19 AM 0 Comments

  Battle of the Models The weather will stay nice & quiet in the short term as a big area of High Pressure moves off the NE coast. Our winds will shift to the East or SE over the next few days, but the temps should be able to make it into the Upper 70s. A weak shortwave will try to slam into the upper level ridge on Monday, but it will make very little progress to the East....that means all of the rain will stay in the Ohio Valley. There is a battle of the computer models brewing for the middle of next week. The Canadian is the most interesting for us...it develops a Tropical Low off the SE coast and then drives it right into VA & MD. If that verifies, we would get a good soaking rain Tue-Wed. However, the Canadian is the only model that has that solution right now. The NOGAPS, UKMET, & the ECMWF all have the storm, but take it across Florida in the the Gulf. The GFS has no storm at all....it will be fun to watch! Let's cheer for the Canadian Model....  ¶ 3:54 PM 1 Comments

  Nice Weekend The upper level ridge will build back in over the weekend...it should be very nice on Saturday & Sunday. We'll have a dry Northwest flow and plenty of sunshine with temps in the 70s. The weather does get interesting next week. A big 1030 MB surface High will be parked off the NE coast. This will turn our surface winds to the East by Monday. Most of the computer models develop some kind of Low pressure off the SE coast by early next week. The Canadian actually brings it on shore in the Carolinas then throws some rain our way by Tuesday. Either way, just the fact that we will have an East wind should give us a chance for showers by Mid Week. That huge area of High Pressure will also block Karen from recurving. There might be a Tropical Storm or Hurricane off the East coast by the end of next week as well...something to watch.  ¶ 8:33 AM 0 Comments

  It's Going to Rain! A strong cold front will move through late Tonight. Out ahead of it, the atmosphere has become fairly unstable...the Lifted Indexes are negative and there is a decent pool of cold air aloft. There is also a nice little Theta-E Ridge that extends from central VA into southern PA. All of this should add up to some showers and t-storms tonight. A few of these could be strong or severe...wind gusts up to 60 MPH are possible and there could be some large hail as well. The only thing going against the possibility of severe weather is the timing of the front...it will miss the heat of the afternoon. However, there should be storms developing in the Mountains then drifting East. I do not think there will be a big problem with flooding since the steering currents are faster than on Wednesday. So, even though there will be some heavy rain in these storms, they should be moving at a good pace. This whole situation should set up a nice weekend with temps in the 70s and sunshine. Look out for some tropical development off the East coast of Florida early next week.

Weather Talk Radio: http://www.weathertalkradio.com/  ¶ 12:45 PM 0 Comments

  Any Changes? There will be a few changes, in the short term, as we move towards the end of the week. A fairly strong cold front will move through on Thursday. I think it will be able to tap into a little Gulf moisture and bring in some much needed rain. Unfortunately, the 500 mb trof does not go negative until it gets right over us....that means most of the energy, and the deepening surface low, will move into New England...it will take most of the rain with it. However, the dew points will be in the 60s and the lifted index should be around -1 or -2 on Thursday, so we should at least get scattered t-storms. Local rain amounts could be near 1 inch, but most areas will get much less. After this system passes, the upper level ridge builds back in over the weekend and rain chances will be sparse. The Canadian Model does try to develop a low off the SE coast by Monday...it then throws some rain up our way...but it's the only model picking this up right now. The ECMWF and the UKMET both show an inverted trof off shore at that time, but no defined area of low pressure...we'll see. There will be no help from any of the tropical features out there right now...Karen will be a "fish" storm and the one in the Gulf should stay down there.

Weather Talk Radio: www.weathertalkradio.com  ¶ 7:08 PM 0 Comments

  Mid Week Rain? In the short term, not much will change for us weatherwise. The big surface High will drift off the coast and the winds will shift to the SW. This will allow the dew points to climb into the 60s by Wednesday....that should hold the temps back a little from the MOS numbers. The GFS is going 91 on Wed, but I think mid to upper 80s will be more common. In addition, it looks to me like a pre-frontal trof may set up here...giving a slight chance for a t-storm in the afternoon. A fairly strong short wave will move a cross the top of the ridge on the East Coast Thursday & Friday. I think it will be able to grab some Gulf moisture, and throw it ahead of the surface front on Thursday, giving us a fairly decent shot at some rain. Although it will cool of a little at the end of the week, most of the computer models build the upper ridge back in over the weekend. I do not see a big pattern change for us until the second week in October. As always, I'll look forward to reading your thoughts on the weather pattern in the comments section!



Weather Talk Radio : http://www.weathertalkradio.com/  ¶ 8:17 PM 0 Comments

  To Forecast Or Not To Forecast, That Is The Question Hello! Since this is my first blog, let me tell you what I hope to do with this space. Most of the time, I will be writing about current weather and forecasting. If you want personal opinions about the big issues of the day, tune into my radio show on Sunday afternoons. It's called Weather Talk and it airs from 3:05 PM to 4PM on WCBM 680 AM. You can stream the audio at: http://www.weathertalkradio.com/. We talk about all kinds of stuff on the show, but here I plan to discuss forecasting. As a matter of fact, one of the things I learned on the show is that most of you out there really want to hear the technical stuff ! As I discuss computer models and things like that, I encourage you to post comments on what YOU think about the weather patterns. Most of the forecasting models that we use are easily found online. This can be allot of fun when there's a big snow storm on the horizon! One of my favorite models is the ECMWF. Most of you out there will be more familiar with the GFS, but I think the ECMWF is much better for long range forecasting. Again, that's just my opinion and I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts in the comments section. We'll get started with daily forecast discussions next week. Thanks for reading!  ¶ 8:21 PM 0 Comments