Arbor Day

Today is Arbor Day, a day to celebrate trees. At The National Arbor Day Foundation's web site, you can learn the history behind Arbor Day. It's actually quite interesting how a pioneer news publisher in Nebraska started the whole thing.

I planted a tree last weekend for Earth Day, and I hope to get one in this weekend as well.

Speaking of the weekend, we're in decent shape. I can't rule out a shower on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s, but Sunday is the winner with more sunshine and highs in the 70s.

One final thing....an interesting e-mail crossed my desk about sunspots:


NOAA ANNOUNCES NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL LIKELY START NEXT MARCH

The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 - up to a year later than expected - according to a forecast issued by NOAA's Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.
The Space Environment Center led the prediction panel and issued the forecast at its annual Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colo. NASA sponsored the panel.

Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker.

During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the Sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the planet's ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially affecting power grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites, Global Positioning System signals, and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation. These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green known as auroras, or the northern or southern lights.

Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots - dark blotches on the Sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur.

In the cycle forecast issued today, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots.

The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between strong and weak.
The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to arrive at a consensus.

NOAA and the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update the forecast as the cycle progresses, since Space Environment Center customers have been requesting a forecast for over a year.

"By giving a long-term outlook, we're advancing a new field-space climate-that's still in its infancy," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "Issuing a cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of what we know about the Sun."

Scientists have issued cycle predictions only twice before. In 1989, a panel met to predict Cycle 22, which peaked that same year.

Scientists met again in September of 1996 to predict Cycle 23-six months after the cycle had begun. Both groups did better at predicting timing than intensity, according to Space Environment Center scientist Douglas Biesecker, who chairs the current panel. He describes the group's confidence level as "high" for its estimate of a March 2008 onset and "moderate" overall for the two estimates of peak sunspot number and when those peaks would occur.

One disagreement among the current panel members centers on the importance of magnetic fields around the Sun's poles as the previous cycle decays. End-cycle polar fields are the bedrock of the approach predicting a weak Cycle 24. The strong-cycle forecasters place more importance on other precursors extending over a several-cycle history. Another clue will be whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008. If not, the strong-cycle group might change their forecast.
"The panelists in each camp have clear views on why they believe in their prediction, why they might be wrong, and what it would take to change their minds," said Biesecker. "We're on the verge of understanding and agreeing on which precursors are most important in predicting future solar activity."

Bugs

This is a great time of year. The warmth returns and the landscape wakes up from its winter nap. The birds and other animals begin their spring rituals. But I'm not that crazy about all of the bugs. I had some ants in my house a few weeks ago, lady bugs are everywhere, and of course, the occasional spider. But after yesterday morning, I feel lucky that I don't have any Eastern Tent Caterpillars.

I learned about this nasty caterpillar while doing a live report for our morning news. Mike Raupp is an entomologist at the University of Maryland and also a very entertaining guy. If you'd like to see a converstaion I had with Mike, here's the story. All I can tell you is that these are nasty caterpillars and you want to stop them before they kill your trees.

Question about the rest of the week....

Spring is a tough time for forecasting. The battle between the approaching summer and dying winter can be a fierce one. Water temperatures are still chilly and an easterly wind can mean some very raw days while a southwesterly wind, like yesterday, can make it feel like summer very quickly.

The rest of this week poses a few challenges as a front will be in the neighborhood through Friday. It looks like we'll only have highs in the 60s with a chance for showers through Thursday. We get on the warm side of things on Friday, back into the 70s, but we will likely see showers and thunderstorms as well. At least the weekend is looking nice.

While we're seeing warm weather around here today, the snow was flying in Colorado and the central plains are dealing with the threat of tornadoes.

Spectacular Start to the Week.

Wow, it was a stunning weekend, very fitting for EARTH DAY. We'll take the winning streak into Monday as we'll see temperatures into the mid 80s this afternoon. Remember last Monday? The high was only 47.

Rain chances return as early as Tuesday afternoon and will be on and off through Friday.

Monday morning brought me to the National Arboretum. It's a beautiful place, about 450 acres of serenity, in Northeast Washington, DC. Today, they celebrate Earth Day by taking a soil sample that will become part of a Smithsonian exhibit of soil samples from all over the U.S. I learned a lot about soil science. Please checkout the story at Earth Day at the Arboretum.

What a Weekend in Store

We're in for a great weekend. Plenty of sunshine and highs well into the 70s if not some 80s, especially by Sunday. After the last week of cloudy, cool and sometimes wet weather, this weekend will be glorious.

As for gardening, north and west of town, hearty plants should be fine, but many people wait until after Mothers' Day to plant the tender stuff. From DC and points South and East, it's probably OK to go ahead. I'm hoping to get a tree and maybe a few bushes in the ground on Sunday and I will buy some all natural Holly-Tone for my shrubs.

I've really been on an environmental kick lately. I don't consider myself a "tree-hugger", but I drive a Honda Civic, I have mainly compact fluorescent bulbs in my house and I've been going out of my way to buy organic fertilizer. We've been food label readers in my house for as long as I can remember. I even have en energy efficient front loading washing machine.

This morning I was at an organic General Store in Clarksburg, MD called Green Earth Goods. I like what these people are doing. They aren’t just selling organic and all natural items, but they are making a big effort to use locally produced and grown items. That means that mom and pop farms get more business and it takes less fuel and creates less pollution to transport those goods to the store.

I'm just one guy, and this is just one store, but this is how change happens.

Kudos to the Home Depot...they are giving away 1 million compact fluorescent bulbs on Sunday, April 22, in honor of Earth Day. Good for them.

Spring Returns

I know that it was another cool day with a few showers. Something that we've experienced all too much of lately, but our luck is about to change.

We're looking at one of the best weekends of the year coming up. Highs will be in the low 70s on Saturday and mid to upper 70s on Sunday.

With all the news about Virginia Tech this week, I can't help but be reminded of my days in Oklahoma City, especially 12 years ago. Last year I wrote about it. I have many vivid memories of that day and of that time. After a few weeks, I just couldn't stand to hear any news about it. I would change the station. I needed to get away to move on. I know it may sound cold, but that's what worked for me. I don't know what the families in Blacksburg are feeling or what they're going through. Only they know and may none of us ever have to go through anything similar!


Back to weather!

NOAA issued this statement about March's warmth:

MARCH TEMPERATURES SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD FOR U.S.,GLOBAL MARCH TEMPERATURE FIFTH WARMEST ON RECORD

March 2007 was more than five degrees F warmerthan average throughout the contiguous U.S.,making it the second warmest March on record,according to scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Precipitation was above average in much of thecenter of the nation, while the Southeast and much of the West were drier than average. The global average March temperature was fifth warmest on record.

U.S. Temperature Highlights For the contiguous U.S., last month's average temperature of 48.1 degrees F made it the second warmest March on record (based on preliminarydata). It was 5.6 degrees F (3.1 degrees C)warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5 degreesF (5.8 degrees C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record.

Statewide temperatures were much warmer than average from parts of the Midwest and Deep South to the Northern Plains and West Coast. Most Northeast states and Florida were near average, while no contiguous U.S. state was cooler than average for the month. The month tied for the warmest on record for Oklahoma.

More than 2,500 daily record-high temperatureswere set from the East to the West Coast during the month. On March 13 alone, more than 250 daily high temperature records were set. The earliest high of 90 degrees F (32 degrees C) occurred in Las Vegas that day. For March, more than 200 daily record highs of 90 degrees F or greater were registered in California, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and areas of the Southeast.

The warmer-than-average March temperatures helped reduce residential energy needs for the nation. Using the Residential Energy Demand TemperatureIndex (REDTI - an index developed at NOAA torelate energy usage to climate), the nation's residential energy demand was approximately 11 percent lower than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the month. Alaska had its third coldest March on record, with a temperature 12.5 degrees F (6.9 degrees C)cooler than average. Also, 40 new dailyrecord-low temperatures were tied, or broken,during March throughout the state.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights

Precipitation was above average from parts of theNortheast to the upper Midwest and from thenorthern Plains to Texas and New Mexico. Muchneeded rain helped end drought in large parts ofTexas. For Texas, it was the wettest March on record.

Across the Deep South and Southeast,drier-than-average conditions prevailed for asecond straight month, worsening droughtconditions. Six states were much drier thanaverage from Louisiana and Arkansas to Florida. It was the second driest March on record for Mississippi and the third driest for Alabama.

At the end of March, severe drought stretched from southeastern Mississippi to northwest Georgia and Tennessee and also affected southern Florida.

The combination of unusual warmth and below-average snowfall during much of the monthled to a continued deterioration of mountain snowpack conditions in California, Arizona, Nevada and Utah.

At the end of March, mountain snowpack was less than 50 percent of average in parts of every state in the West and less than 25 percent of average in several states .

In Los Angeles, the lack of rainfall led to the driest water-year to date for the city since records began in 1877. From July 1, 2006, through the end of March, downtown Los Angeles had received only 2.47 inches of rain, almost one foot below the normal amount of rainfall for the period.

In the West, where mountain snowpack is relied upon to supply water needs throughout the region, below-average rain and snowfall have become increasingly common. In only two of the past nine years has snowpack on April 1 been at or abovethe long-term average in at least half the region.

Near the end of March, approximately 33 percentof the contiguous U.S. was in moderate to exceptional drought, according to the federal U.S. Drought Monitor. The most severe conditions were in northern Alabama, southern California,western Arizona, parts of the western High Plainsand extreme northern Minnesota.

Hello From Birmingham, AL

I'm in Birmingham, Alabama at my nephew Michael's Bar Mitzvah. It's been great to see my extended family that has gathered from across the country to celebrate this milestone in a young man's life.

Birmingham is about 750 miles away, and we drove the whole way, with a stop in Knoxville. I must have done this drive a dozen times now since my sister and mom now live in Alabama. But this time, the drive was a lot different.

The unprecedented cold that we had also affected a good portion of the eastern and southern U.S. This was very appearant as I was driving in eastern Tennessee into northeastern Alabama.

I had expected a sea of light green shades along with the wonderful array of colors from the spring flowers. But, it was the brownness that was new to me. The leaves were brown and dead. Sure, there was some green on the trees, but the brown wasvery noticeable. The new growth, was just no match for the massive cold outbreak.

It's one thing when the guys on TV tell you that crops have been damaged and that our summer produce will be more expensive, but when you see it up close, it really brings it home.

We're still dealing with unseasonably cold weather in the mid-Atlantic and it may be a couple more weeks before it's safe to plant.

See you in a few days when I get back!

Rain On The Way

We're about 1/2 inch below normal for April rainfall and a little over 2 inches under for the entire year. Our numbers are about to change as we have 2 storms on the map. We'll have 1 move in later today and the rain could be heavy at times overnight.

Storm #2 arrives later Saturday and lasts into Sunday. In fact the second storm looks to be bringing another round of chilly air to the region and it's not inconceivable that some wet flakes could once again fall late Saturday into Saturday night.

Our computer guidance is hinting at a return to more seasonable weather as we get past the 20th of the month.

On a separate note, I'll be off until next Thursday 4/18/07....so I'll see you then.

Cold to Lessen & Organic Fertilizer

I was off Sunday and Monday and I spent some time outside working on the yard. It wasn't just cold, it was damn cold! Easter Sunday brought more snow flurries to the area, after Saturday's snow, and Monday was perhaps, slightly better.

How rare is this April cold snap? This stament was issued by The National Weather Service this morning:

Both Washington and Baltimore hit five consecutive days below 50 degrees with the addition of Monday. Even with the extensive weather records from both cities for April, that is nearly unmatched.

For Baltimore, our current streak of five sub 50 degree days ties a streak made over 70 years ago in April of 1935. The only streak greater than those two was set back in the 19th century. Between April 1st and 6th 1881, the temperature remained below 50 for a record six days.

For Washington, our current streak of five sub 50 degree days is the first time such a streak has been made in April since the nineteenth century. There were two other streaks of five, in April 1898 and April 1886. However, as with Baltimore, the record lies in the period between April 1st and 6th 1881,the temperature remained below 50 for a record six days.

Pretty Amazing! Perhaps pretty devastating as well as many farmers had fruit trees that started to blossom. Apple trees seem to be OK as they haven't blossomed, but Peaches, Apricots and Strawberries may be much more expensive this year.

Speaking of growing, I mowed my lawn for the first time last Thursday. I'm one of those who likes to mow high and mulch. It's better for your lawn. I have also been told to fertilize 2 to 3 times in the Fall and once in the Spring. Maybe that's why I already had to mow.

But I got to thinking about all of that fertilizer and where it goes. Sure, plenty of it goes into my lawn, that's why it's green and somewhat healthy, as opposed to many of my neighbors that haven't fertlized since they moved in and now their yards look terrible. (It's not a keeping up with the Joneses thing, it's about having a healthy lawn.) Anyway, a bunch of that fertilizer must also run off into the streams and creeks and eventually the Chesapeake Bay.

So I went out of my way to buy an organic fertilzer. I found myself at the Lowes in Frederick, MD. I live closer to the Kentalnds in Gaithersburg, but trust me, going to Frederick is a far better Lowes experience. Searching the garden center, I found an organic fertilizer called Gro-Well. It's a fertilzier and weed pre-emergent. It's made from corn proteins. An organic fertilizer that contains no Phosphorus and therefore won't be doing the damage to the waterways sounds good to me. We'll know in a month or so how well the stuff works. http://www.gro-well.com/lawnandgarden/fertilizers_growell.html for more info and I do not own any stock in this company, I just like the "green-ness" of the product.

Milorganite was another organic choice, along with Richlawn Organic Based Turf Food. Scotts and Miracle grow also had some organic choices.

I also plan on buying all natural Hollytone for my shrubs. I'm only one yard, but if enough people act the same, a real differnce can happen. I'm still naive enough to believe that one person can change the world.

Some Snow on The Way...Really!

Today is Good Friday and the average high temperature is 64. I say that because we'll have temperatures through Easter Sunday some 15 - 20 degrees below average. If you'll be outside for "Sunrise Services" on Sunday morning, temperatures will be well below freezing.

In fact, Sunday morning will likely break record lows as National's is 29 and Dulles's record low is 24. I've talked about the threat to fruit tree blossoms and young buds and once again a Freeze Watch is in effect for tonight.

Another unseasonable event, the threat of some accumulating snow for late tonight into Saturday morning. A fast moving jet stream will bring another piece of energy over the region and that will also develop a surface low. The low will really intensify once it moves off the coast, but the potential exists for some light accumulating snow, especially south of Washington, D.C. Any snow should diminish by mid morning. Road surfaces are still realitively warm, so the largest accumulations will be on grassy surfaces.

Yes, Those were Snowfalkes that you saw!

It's snowing today! Not that much, but we've had temps in the 80s already this spring and a lot of us felt that we were done with the wintry weather. Guess again.

Most of the flurries have been north and west from Loudoun and Frederick counties and north and west of them, but there were flurries down into the District and across Prince George's county also. It's possible that we could see some minor accumulations late Friday night into Saturday morning as a piece of upper level energy comes through.

With the unusually cold weather in place, A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for the entire area as we have many fruit bearing trees that have blossoms and the cold weather could be damaging. We're likely to have more Freeze Warings throughout the weekend.

Spring Goes on a Break

It's early April and the flowers are blooming, the bugs are flying around and my lawn could already use mowing. But don't be lulled into thinking Spring is here to stay. We're in for some useasonably cold weather through the weekend and an overall cooler than normal pattern may be with us for the next week or two.

While the cold is likely to knock down pollen poduction, which is great news for allergy sufferers, there are some pretty big negatives.

For starters, the Cherry Blossom Festival is entering it's second weekend and with temperatures staying mainly in the 40s, that could really cut down on the number of visitors.

But even more importanly, area farmers could take a major hit. I have a farmer friend in Buckeystown, MD who grows strawberries and is also hosting 4 churches at his place for Easter Sunrise service. If the weather gets too cold, the blossoms could be destroyed. No blossoms means no fruit to pick. This cold could also cause problems for any farmers with fruit trees. With temperatures likely getting down into the mid 20s for lows this weekend, these farmers will probably be up all night with smudge pots and sprinklers trying to stave off the destruction of this year's crop.

On a lighter note, the Passover Seder was a success. I'm very fortunate that I have some great neighbors/friends who came over for the Seder. One in Particular, Howard King. Howard is a fantastic cook. He made a turkey and a brisket. Both were awesome. (He makes a mean stromboli as well.) Funny thing about Mr. King. He and I also share middle names, so we are both "Howard Ian"....weird.

Other neighbors brought over Matzoh Ball Soup, glazed carrots, Asparagus and their wonderful kids. I must also acknowledge the great job that Mrs. Bernstein did with organizing the whole event and making some great mashed Sweet Potatoes and Noodle Kugel.

Hoops Sagrado

One of my non meteorological duties here at WUSA is as a live feature reporter during the morning news. This morning I was in Adams Morgan at the old Mackie school gym where I met a man named Bryan Weaver. Bryan was working with High School kids from the District. Bryan is the elected ANC representative from Adams Morgan, he's also a political consultant, but more importantly, he is the man behind a program called Hoops Sagrado.

Hoops Sagrado (Translated as Sacred Hoops) uses basketball to mentor inner city youths in the District. The program takes a couple dozen of the teenagers to Guatemala for 30 days during the month of July. The kids teach basketball to Guatemala kids, learn Spanish by immersion 4 hours a day, and play exhibition games against some high level college and National teams.

Along with the amazing experience of spending 30 days in a foreign country that more than 100 DC teens have already had, Hoops Sagrado also funds scholarships for nearly 100 indigenous teenagers from rural areas in Guatemala to attend secondary school. Guatemala has problems too and Hoops Sagrado is trying to help them also.

If you'd like to learn more, check out their web site at:http://www.hoopssagrado.com. Perhaps you know a teen who wants to be in the program,and they can alwys use donations to help pay for all of this.

A Great start to The Week, but it's the finish that we have to watch out for.

What a day! The sun is bright and the air is warm. By 11 am, Fredericksburg was already 81, while Reagan National sat in the 60s.

The Cherry Trees around the Tidal basin look great! The National Park Service Peak Bloom Forecast is for April 3rd-5th. I suggest you go tomorrow or wait until next week. I say that, because tomorrow will be another awesome day, after that, it's all downhill.

Wednesday will feature showers and thunderstorms with early highs in the 70 degree range before turning colder. Thunderstorms could be a bad thing because winds can really ruin the Cherry Tree blossoms by ripping them off the trees. By Thursday, highs will only be near 50 and highs will stay in the 40s Friday through Easter Sunday. The cold may actually prolong the blossoms so that they still may be good for a few days after Easter.

Speaking of Easter, many people will go to sunrise services, outside , where temperatures could be in the 20s. WOW!

Passover starts tonight and we're having a total of 19 people over for a SEDER. As a kid, we would go to my aunt and uncle's place in Flushing, NY. I grew up on Long Island. Passover with the Mitrani's was always a very wonderful experience with many family members, great food and plenty of fun. I hope that the lessons learned from my Aunt Eleanor and Uncle Fred can permeate our Seder tonight.

A Crazy week ahead...Allergies are killing me.

This is going to be one wild week. We'll start with highs in the 70s and low 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will feature a strong cold front with showers and thunderstorms and then the bottom drops out. Temperatures for the Thuirsday to Sunday period will top out in the upper 40s and low 50s. Night time lows could fall into the 20s. That would kill many of the tender flowers that may have been planted already. In fact I think it will be cold enough to snow in western Maryland and parts of West Virginia later in the week. Could some spots have a white Easter? Not toatlly out of the question.

Now for Allergy talk.

I'm one of those who is unfortunate enough to be afflicted with allergies and the warm weather the past couple of weeks has really inspired the trees in our region to wake up from their winter slumber. Spring is a beautiful time of year with all of the colorful flowers, but along with the flowers comes the pollen, an irritant to many. I have put off going to the doctor, because I generally try to "suck it up" when I'm not feeling that great, but I am almost at my breaking point. Waking up with a stuffed head and a sore throat every morning gets old pretty quickly.