Ice is not Nice
Well, my thinking has shifted a little in regards to the weekend storm. I don't think this will turn into a major snow storm for the Metro Area....but it could be a major ice event in some areas. The models have trended slower and a little warmer again Today...the secondary low development that we have been talking about might not take place until Sunday Afternoon. So, as the primary low comes up the spine of the Appalachians, overrunning precip will dominate through Saturday Night. That means if the temps get below freezing, they'll have a hard time warming up at the surface...As the energy transfers to the coastal low...the air will warm aloft, but not down below. We might start with some snow or sleet on Saturday Afternoon, but it would then change to freezing rain in many places....and it might rain hard for a while. That means a significant ice accumulation. The secondary low will crank on Sunday Afternoon, and as it pulls away, it will cool down all layers of the atmosphere and we should end the storm Late Sunday as a brief period of snow. The winds might be gusting over 30 MPH Sunday Night...that's not good for power lines and trees covered in ice. We are going to have a hard time drawing the lines between the snow/sleet/freezing rain/and plain old rain over the weekend. This is a tough one to forecast!
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