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National Hurricane Center 5 a.m. Sunday Sandy Update

10:04 PM, Oct 29, 2012   |    comments
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The information posted below comes directly from the National Hurricane Center.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 280839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SURGE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AND POWERFUL
UNTIL IT CROSSES THE COASTLINE. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM.  NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44
MPH...71 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

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