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Average gas prices likely to climb over $4, and war in Ukraine could push costs even higher

Analysts say pain at the gas pump likely to get much worse before it gets better.

MCLEAN, Va. — Check your wallet.

Experts are forecasting skyrocketing gas prices as we head into Presidents Day weekend.

The average price nationwide could hit a new record north of $4 next month. And that's without war in Ukraine.

"Ridiculous," said Otis Braxton, as he filled up in Bethesda.

At the Langley Exxon on Route 123 in Fairfax County, the price for regular was an eyewatering $4.69.

"It’s too high!" said Iona Sanchez.

Across the river in Northwest D.C., they were charging $4.19 at the Exxon on Massachusetts Avenue in Spring Valley.

The average price in D.C. is now $3.73.

At the Liberty at Arlington and Bradley in Bethesda, they’re charging $3.99, although that's actually down 20 cents from what was reported on Google Maps.

In California, some stations are charging more than $6.

"$80 to fill up. And it’s not full," said Sanchez. She has a construction business and says that doesn’t even get her through a workday. "Drop my employees, come back for material, drop material, come back for more, my gas is gone!" she said.

How bad is this going to get? "Boy, it’s up to Russia. It could get pretty rough," said Patrick De Haan, Gas Buddy's head of petroleum analysis.

At least one analyst is predicting war in Ukraine could send average American gas prices to an unprecedented $7 a gallon. De Haan thinks that’s extremely unlikely. But he says national average could easily fly past the record of $4.09 a gallon set in 2008 – even without a conflict in Europe.

"Getting closer to some of the highest prices we have seen on record. So it certainly could be a very painful summer at the pump," he said.

DC prices usually run 10 to 15 cents a gallon higher than the national average.

Some politicians are talking about a gas-tax holiday, but that could rob billions from the highway trust fund that pays to fix our crumbling roads and bridges.

De Haan says if prices hit $7 a gallon, demand would drop from 0 to 60 in four seconds, and that would bring prices down too.

He sees three possibilities for relief. One, if prices stay high for awhile, producers will start drilling, increasing supplies and reducing prices.

He says the U.S. might eventually convince the Saudis to use some of their significant excess capacity, which also would increase supplies.

And finally, he says if there's a breakthrough on a new nuclear deal with Iran, that could bring a lot of Iranian crude onto the market and reduce prices.

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